PTA、MEG早报-20250730

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PTA: Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated weakly following the cost side. The news of a 7.2 million - ton PTA device in East China reducing its load provided some support, narrowing the decline in the futures market. The spot market remained quiet with a weak spot basis. In August, some PTA devices are planned for maintenance, and the supply - demand outlook is expected to improve. Last week, polyester sales volume increased significantly, alleviating the inventory pressure of polyester factories. It is expected that the PTA price will fluctuate following the cost side in the short term, and the basis will fluctuate within a certain range [5]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the ethylene glycol price fluctuated upwards at a low level. The night - session opened lower and adjusted, with weak buying interest. The supply side of ethylene glycol has experienced frequent unexpected events recently, and the supply - demand situation in July - August has shifted to a tight balance, which is significantly better than the previous market expectation. Under the resonance of supply tightening and a good macro - atmosphere, the short - term price center of ethylene glycol is expected to move upwards. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of overseas devices [7][9]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 (Previous Day's Review) No relevant content provided. 2.每日提示 (Daily Tips) No relevant content provided. 3.今日关注 (Today's Focus) No relevant content provided. 4.基本面数据 (Fundamental Data) - PTA - Supply - demand balance: The report provides the PTA supply - demand balance table from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on PTA capacity, production, import, export, and inventory [11]. - Spot price and basis: The spot price is 4830, and the basis of the 09 contract is - 8, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a neutral situation [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.99 days, a 0.13 - day increase compared to the previous period, which is a bearish factor [6]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish factor. The net long position of the main contract is decreasing, still showing a bullish tendency [6]. - MEG - Supply - demand balance: The report provides the ethylene glycol supply - demand balance table from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on production, import, consumption, and port inventory [12]. - Spot price and basis: The spot price is 4518, and the basis of the 09 contract is 51, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 46.88 tons, a 2.52 - ton decrease compared to the previous period, which is a bullish factor [8]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish factor. The net short position of the main contract is increasing, showing a bearish tendency [7][8]. - Influencing factors - Bullish factors: Recently, there have been frequent unexpected events on the ethylene glycol supply side, including the unexpected shutdown of several devices in Saudi Arabia due to power issues (with a total capacity of about 1.7 million tons), the continuous decline in the load of a large - scale ethylene glycol producer in Zhejiang, and the planned maintenance of a 1.25 - million - ton/year cracking device in Lianyungang in August, which may postpone the restart of its 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol device [9]. - Bearish factors: On the demand side, at the end of the rush - to - export period and during the off - season of domestic demand, the trend of weakening terminal demand is certain [9]. 5.价格 (Prices) The report presents various price - related charts and data, including bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization rates, inventory levels, and price spreads between different contracts and products such as PTA and MEG, as well as the processing spreads of p - xylene [14][17][21]. 6.库存分析 (Inventory Analysis) The report provides inventory data and charts of various products, including PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET chip factory inventory, and polyester fiber inventory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving mills [40][41][43]. 7.聚酯上游开工 (Polyester Upstream Operation) The report shows the operation rate data and charts of polyester upstream products, including the operation rates of refined terephthalic acid, p - xylene, and ethylene glycol [51][52][54]. 8.聚酯下游开工 (Polyester Downstream Operation) The report presents the operation rate data and charts of polyester downstream products, including the operation rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving mills in the PTA industry chain [55][56][58]. 9.加工费与利润 (Processing Fees and Profits) - PTA: The report shows the PTA processing fee data and chart [59][60]. - MEG: The report presents the production margin data and charts of ethylene glycol produced by different methods, such as methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and ethylene - based methods [62][63]. - Polyester fibers: The report shows the production margin data and charts of polyester short - fibers and different types of polyester long - fibers (DTY, POY, FDY) [65][67][68].