Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are difficult to fall back due to the shift from inflation expectations to economic recession expectations after Trump took office, and the high sentiment of gold prices makes them still prone to rise and difficult to fall. Silver prices mainly follow gold prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase in silver prices due to stronger tariff concerns [10][13]. - Today, attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision, Powell's speech, the US July ADP, and the eurozone's second - quarter GDP. Gold prices have rebounded, and the premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to 1.8 yuan/gram. The domestic commodity market has recovered, and gold prices are oscillating. Silver prices have also rebounded, but the rebound is limited, and the market is waiting for the expiration date of the trade agreement. The support for silver prices still exists [4][5]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: Trump set a new deadline for the ultimatum to Russia, most domestic futures rose, and gold prices rebounded. The three major US stock indexes closed down across the board, while major European stock indexes closed up across the board. US bond yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year yield down 8.75 basis points to 4.322%. The US dollar index rose 0.27% to 98.92, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1808. COMEX gold futures rose 0.46% to $3325.30 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Most domestic futures rose, and silver prices rebounded. The three major US stock indexes closed down across the board, while major European stock indexes closed up across the board. US bond yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year yield down 8.75 basis points to 4.322%. The US dollar index rose 0.27% to 98.92, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1808. COMEX silver futures rose 0.43% to $38.39 per ounce [5]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis is - 3.86, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The gold futures warehouse receipt is 30,258 kilograms, unchanged, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral. The main net position is long, and the main long position is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. - Silver: The basis is - 27, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipt is 1,208,269 kilograms, with a daily increase of 21,015 kilograms, which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the main long position is decreasing, which is bullish [6]. 3. Today's Focus - 09:30: Australia's second - quarter CPI - 13:30: France's preliminary second - quarter GDP - 16:00: Germany's preliminary unadjusted second - quarter GDP - 17:00: The eurozone's preliminary second - quarter GDP - 20:15: The US July ADP employment number (the "small non - farm") - 20:30: The US preliminary second - quarter GDP, and the US Treasury Department's quarterly refinancing report statement - 21:45: The Bank of Canada's interest rate decision - 22:00: The US June pending home sales index - Time TBD: The US President's Digital Asset Working Group's release of the cryptocurrency policy report - Next day 02:00: The Fed's release of the FOMC monetary policy meeting's resolution statement - Next day 02:30: Fed Chairman Powell's regular press conference - Next day 05:30: The Central Bank of Brazil's interest rate decision [15] 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with the inflation expectation shifting to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to fall back. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the sentiment of gold prices is high, still prone to rise and difficult to fall [10]. - Silver: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with the inflation expectation shifting to the economic recession expectation, and silver prices mainly follow gold prices. Tariff concerns have a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase in silver prices [13]. 5. Position Data - Gold: For the top 20 positions in Shanghai gold, on July 29, 2025, the long position was 217,535, an increase of 246 or 0.11% from the previous day; the short position was 67,745, an increase of 3,292 or 5.11% from the previous day; the net position was 149,790, a decrease of 3,046 or 1.99% from the previous day [31]. - Silver: For the top 20 positions in Shanghai silver, on July 29, 2025, the long position was 387,020, a decrease of 14,545 or 3.62% from the previous day; the short position was 285,323, a decrease of 16,893 or 5.59% from the previous day; the net position was 101,697, an increase of 2,348 or 2.36% from the previous day [33].
大越期货贵金属早报-20250730
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-30 01:55