广发期货《有色》日报-20250730

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views Copper - The copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectation and weakening demand" in non - US regions after the 232 investigation. The short - term copper price is affected by macro factors and fundamentals. The price is supported by domestic macro - policies and low inventory, but the demand is weak due to price rebound and the traditional off - season. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 78000 - 80000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price may rebound due to supply tightness in the ore end and low inventory of futures warrants, but the market will remain slightly oversupplied in the long run. It is recommended to be cautious about the squeeze - out risk and consider short - selling at high prices in the medium term. For aluminum, under the pressure of inventory accumulation, weakening demand, and macro - disturbances, the short - term price is expected to be under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price in the range of 20200 - 21000 [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is in a situation where the demand is suppressed by the off - season, and the price is restricted by weak demand but has limited downward space due to high scrap aluminum costs. The main contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 19600 - 20400 [4]. Zinc - The zinc market has a loose supply expectation in the long run, but the short - term price rebounds due to positive macro - policies. However, the off - season demand and supply pressure limit the upward space. The main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22000 - 23000 [8]. Tin - The tin market has a tight supply of tin ore, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush. The price has fallen from a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on Sino - US negotiations and inventory changes after Myanmar's resumption of production [12]. Nickel - The nickel market shows a weak and volatile trend. The macro - environment has no obvious improvement. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the supply of refined nickel is increasing. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract in the range of 120000 - 128000 [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market has a slow - moving spot demand. The price is mainly driven by policies and macro - emotions, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract in the range of 12600 - 13200 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market has increased supply - side uncertainties, and the trading focus has shifted to the ore end. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - Copper: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 79025 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 110 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 316 yuan/ton, up 25.16 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - Aluminum: The price of SMM A00 aluminum is 20620 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is 87.4 yuan/ton, up 1662 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - Aluminum Alloy: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remains unchanged at 20100 yuan/ton [4]. - Zinc: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 22570 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1637 yuan/ton, up 73.72 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - Tin: The price of SMM 1 tin is 266100 yuan/ton, down 1.00% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 17714.03 yuan/ton, up 1360.71 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - Nickel: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 122450 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1316 yuan/ton, up 139 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. - Stainless Steel: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remains unchanged at 12900 yuan/ton [16]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73150 yuan/ton, down 1.01% from the previous day. The basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) is 2690 yuan/ton, up 490 yuan/ton from the previous day [19]. Fundamental Data - Copper: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, down 0.30% from the previous month; the import volume was 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% [1]. - Aluminum: In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, down 0.19% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 360.90 million tons, down 3.22% [3]. - Aluminum Alloy: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, up 1.49% from the previous month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% [4]. - Zinc: In June, the refined zinc production was 58.51 million tons, up 6.50% from the previous month; the import volume was 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% [8]. - Tin: In June, the domestic tin ore import was 11911 tons, SMM refined tin production was 13810 tons, and the average smelting plant operating rate was 57.30% [12]. - Nickel: The Chinese refined nickel production in June was 31800 tons, down 10.04% from the previous month; the import volume was 19157 tons, up 116.90% [14]. - Stainless Steel: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) in June was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% from the previous month [16]. - Lithium Carbonate: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78090 tons, up 8.34% from the previous month; the demand was 93836 tons, down 0.15% [19].