广发期货《农产品》日报-20250730

1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: The market's concern about the end - of - month inventory growth will support the market. The futures of crude palm oil may start an upward trend. It is recommended to go long on dips. - Soybean oil: The digestion of the US biodiesel policy has ended. The domestic spot trading is light, but the market sentiment may improve in August [1]. Meal Industry - The US soybean remains in a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Livestock (Pig) Industry - The pig spot market is weak. The short - term pig price is not optimistic, with the near - month contract facing strong resistance. It is not advisable to short the far - month contract blindly [4]. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn market is not active, with the futures oscillating. In the long run, the supply may be tight in the third quarter and loose in the fourth quarter [6]. Sugar Industry - Internationally, the raw sugar price may bottom out, but the overall trend is bearish. Domestically, the supply - demand situation is marginally loose, with the futures expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [8]. Egg Industry - The egg demand may first decrease and then increase this week. The egg price in some regions may decline next week, but the spot price still has some upward potential [11]. Cotton Industry - The short - term domestic cotton price may oscillate within a range, and the price may face pressure after the new cotton is launched [14]. 3. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats Industry - Prices: On July 28 - 29, the spot and futures prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different changes, with the basis and spreads also fluctuating. - Inventory and Market Outlook: Palm oil inventory concerns support the market, and soybean oil may improve in August [1]. Meal Industry - Prices and Spreads: The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans changed, with the spreads such as the inter - period spreads and oil - meal ratios also showing fluctuations. - Market Situation: The US soybean is at the bottom, and the domestic supply and demand situation affects the meal market [2]. Livestock (Pig) Industry - Prices and Indicators: The futures and spot prices of pigs changed, along with indicators such as the basis, spreads, and slaughter volume. - Market Outlook: The short - term pig price is not optimistic, and the far - month contract needs cautious operation [4]. Corn Industry - Prices and Indicators: The prices of corn and corn starch futures and spot, along with indicators such as the basis, spreads, and inventory, changed. - Market Outlook: The short - term market is inactive, and the long - term supply - demand situation varies [6]. Sugar Industry - Prices and Indicators: The futures and spot prices of sugar, along with indicators such as the basis, spreads, and inventory, changed. - Market Outlook: The international raw sugar is bearish, and the domestic supply - demand is marginally loose [8]. Egg Industry - Prices and Indicators: The prices of eggs, egg - related products, and indicators such as the basis, spreads, and production costs changed. - Market Outlook: The demand may fluctuate, and the price may decline and then rise [11]. Cotton Industry - Prices and Indicators: The futures and spot prices of cotton, along with indicators such as the basis, spreads, and inventory, changed. - Market Outlook: The short - term price oscillates, and the long - term price may face pressure [14].