大越期货菜粕早报-20250730

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 will oscillate in the range of 2660 - 2720. The price of rapeseed meal bottomed out and rebounded, driven by the trend of soybean meal and technical consolidation. The low operating rate of rapeseed meal oil mills and low inventory support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal spot has entered the peak season. Although the arrival volume of imported rapeseed has increased, the short - term inventory pressure of oil mills is not high, so the market will maintain a range oscillation in the short term. China's additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive for rapeseed meal, but the positive effect may be limited as no additional tariff is imposed on rapeseed imports [9]. - In the short term, rapeseed meal prices rose and then fell due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and China's additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. Coupled with the influence of soybean meal, rapeseed meal prices will return to the range oscillation in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 will oscillate in the range of 2660 - 2720. The analysis from multiple aspects shows a neutral view, with some factors being bullish and others bearish [9]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expectation of tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good expectation [11]. - The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has decreased slightly, which supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. The future result is uncertain and may depend on the further development of China - Canada trade relations [11]. - The global rapeseed output has decreased slightly this year, mainly affected by the reduction of rapeseed output in the EU and the lower - than - expected output in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. The reduction of rapeseed output in Ukraine and the increase in Russia offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; the inventory pressure of oil mill rapeseed meal is not high [12]. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed was listed in June; the result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, and the demand for rapeseed meal is in the seasonal off - season [13]. - Main logic: The market focuses on the domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Base difference: The spot price is 2560, and the base difference is - 100, indicating a discount to the futures, which is bearish [9]. - Inventory: The rapeseed meal inventory is 19,000 tons, up 25.83% week - on - week from 15,100 tons last week and down 44.12% year - on - year compared with 34,000 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - Market trend: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward, which is bullish [9]. - Domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet: From 2014 - 2023, data on harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are provided [25]. - Domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet: From 2014 - 2023, data on initial inventory, output, total supply, feed demand, total demand, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are provided [26]. - Imported rapeseed: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in July was lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuated slightly [27]. - Oil mill inventory: The rapeseed inventory of oil mills increased slightly, and the rapeseed meal inventory remained at a low level [29]. - Oil mill processing volume: The rapeseed processing volume of oil mills increased slightly [31]. - Aquatic products: The price of aquatic fish fluctuated slightly, and the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [39]. 3.5 Position Data - The main position has changed from short to long, but the funds have flowed out, which is bullish [9]. - Data on the trading average price, trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal from July 18 - 29 are provided [14]. - Data on rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2509, far - month contract 2601) and spot prices from July 21 - 29 are provided [16]. - Data on rapeseed meal warehouse receipts from July 18 - 29 are provided [17].