大越期货甲醇早报-20250730

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the methanol market, predicting that the methanol price will fluctuate this week. The MA2509 contract is expected to trade between 2390 - 2500 yuan/ton. The port market may see inventory accumulation, which could limit price increases, while the inland market is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend [4][5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - For the MA2509 contract, the fundamentals show that the "anti - involution" reform of coal may support the methanol futures and spot prices in ports, but potential inventory accumulation could limit the increase. Inland, the market is in a state of low supply and demand, with prices expected to be stable with a slight upward trend. The basis indicates that the spot price in Jiangsu is at a premium to the futures. Inventory data shows a decrease in social inventory in East and South China ports. The price is above the 20 - day moving average, but the main position is net short with an increase in short positions [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Likely to be bullish: Some domestic devices are shut down, the methanol operation rate in Iran has decreased, the port inventory is at a low level, new acetic acid devices are put into production, and there is external procurement demand from CTO plants in the Northwest [6]. - Likely to be bearish: Some previously shut - down domestic devices have resumed operation, there is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month, the formaldehyde market is in the off - season, the MTBE operation rate has decreased significantly, coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling, and some factory inventories in the production area have accumulated [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Spot and futures prices: The spot price of methanol in different regions has changed slightly, with the futures closing price rising by 30 yuan/ton to 2434 yuan/ton. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 220 to 9834, and the effective forecast remained at 0 [8]. - Price differences: The basis decreased by 22 yuan/ton to - 29 yuan/ton, and the import price difference decreased by 29 yuan/ton to 39 yuan/ton. The price differences between regions such as Jiangsu - Shandong and Jiangsu - Hebei have increased [8]. - Operation rate: The national weighted average operation rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, with significant decreases in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions [8]. - Inventory: The inventory in East China ports decreased by 2.93 million tons to 41.67 million tons, while that in South China ports increased by 2.04 million tons to 17.04 million tons [8]. - Profit of production processes: The profit of coal - based methanol decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 290 yuan/ton, the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained at - 120 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol increased by 334 yuan/ton to 479 yuan/ton [20]. - External market prices: The CFR China price increased by 2.56% to 280 US dollars/ton, the CFR Southeast Asia price increased by 0.91% to 333.5 US dollars/ton, and the price difference increased by 4 US dollars/ton to - 53.5 US dollars/ton [24]. - Prices of traditional downstream products: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged [29]. - Production profit and load of downstream products: The production profit of formaldehyde decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 182 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.90% to 25.42%. The production profit of dimethyl ether decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 353 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.82% to 8.88%. The production profit of acetic acid increased by 7 yuan/ton to - 73 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 1.94% to 82.42%. The production profit of MTO increased by 38 yuan/ton to - 996 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.15% to 79.84% [33][36][40][45]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic methanol plants: Many plants in Northwest, North China, East China, Southwest, and Northeast regions are under maintenance, with different maintenance start and end times and production losses [56]. - Foreign methanol plants: Some Iranian plants are in the process of resuming operation, while some plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally or have planned shutdowns [57]. - Olefin plants: Some olefin plants in Northwest, East China, Central China, and other regions are under maintenance or operating stably, with different operating conditions and maintenance plans [58].