大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250730

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand relationship of lithium carbonate shows a situation of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [8][11]. - The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 69,400 - 72,280 [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply Side: Last week, the output of lithium carbonate was 18,630 tons, 53% higher than the historical average level. It is predicted that the output in the next month will increase to 81,150 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.92%. The import volume in June 2025 was 17,698 physical tons, and it is predicted that the import volume in the next month will be 22,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.31% [8]. - Demand Side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 94,878 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17%. The inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 16,552 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.40%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen in the next month, and the inventory may be depleted [8]. - Cost Side: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 69,611 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 2.47%, with a production profit of 2,489 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lepidolite was 77,138 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.59%, with a production loss of 6,968 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - Market Indicators: On July 29, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,150 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 2,310 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The overall inventory was 143,170 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%, higher than the historical average level. The MA20 of the market trend is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20. The net short position of the main contract decreased [8]. - Leverage Factors: Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [9][10]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Price Changes: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different degrees of changes, such as a 1.61% increase in the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate, a 1.73% increase in the price of (electric - industrial) lithium carbonate, and a 0.44% increase in the price of micronized lithium hydroxide [13]. - Supply - Demand Data: On the supply side, the weekly operating rate decreased by 0.80%, the daily production cost of spodumene decreased by 2.47%, and the monthly processing cost decreased by 2.89%. On the demand side, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 2.09%, and the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 1.24% [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production: The price of lithium ore showed a certain trend of change over time, and the production of lithium ore in China's sample spodumene mines and the total output of domestic lepidolite also showed different trends in different years [24]. - Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate showed fluctuations, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also changed over time [24]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore from June 2024 to June 2025 showed different situations, with some months in short supply and some months in surplus [27]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production and Capacity: The weekly operating rate and weekly output of lithium carbonate from different sources (spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, and recycled materials) showed different trends. The monthly output and monthly capacity of lithium carbonate also changed over time [30]. - Import and Recycling: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) and the monthly recycling volume of waste lithium - ion batteries also showed different trends [30][31]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate from June 2024 to June 2025 showed different situations, with some months in surplus and some months in short supply [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production and Capacity Utilization: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide, the monthly operating rate from different sources (causticization and smelting), and the production volume showed different trends [37]. - Export Volume: The export volume of lithium hydroxide in China from 2019 to 2025 showed different trends [37]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide from June 2024 to June 2025 showed different situations, with some months in surplus and some months in short supply [40]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials: The production cost and profit of lithium compounds produced from different raw materials (spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, recycled materials, etc.) showed different trends over time [43][46]. - Processing and Purification Profit: The processing profit between different types of lithium hydroxide (coarse - grained and micronized) and the purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also showed different trends [46][49]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate from different sources (smelters, downstream, and others) showed different trends [51]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelters and downstream) also showed different trends [51]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Battery Price and Output: The price of batteries, the monthly output of battery cells, the monthly power battery loading volume, and the monthly power battery cell shipment volume showed different trends [55]. - Battery Export and Inventory: The export volume of lithium batteries and the inventory of battery cells also showed different trends [55][58]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price and Cost - Profit: The price of ternary precursors, the cost - profit of 523 (polycrystalline/consumer) ternary precursors, and the processing fee showed different trends [61]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The monthly output of ternary precursors and the capacity utilization rate also showed different trends [61]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors from June 2024 to June 2025 showed different situations, with some months in surplus and some months in short supply [64]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price and Cost - Profit: The price of ternary materials, the cost - profit trend, and the processing fee showed different trends [67][69]. - Production and Inventory: The production volume, export volume, import volume, and weekly inventory of ternary materials also showed different trends [67][69]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price and Cost - Profit: The price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium, the production cost of iron phosphate, and the cost - profit of iron phosphate lithium showed different trends [71]. - Production and Inventory: The monthly output, monthly export volume, and weekly inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium also showed different trends [74][76]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Export: The production volume, sales volume, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends [79][80]. - Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles in the Passenger Car Association and the monthly dealer inventory warning index and inventory index also showed different trends [83].