大越期货豆粕早报-20250730

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market may return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. The bottom of the US soybean futures is supported by the uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas, but the rebound height is limited by the good planting weather recently and the bumper harvest of South American soybeans. In the domestic market, the large arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans also affects the soybean meal market. The soybean meal M2509 is expected to fluctuate between 2960 and 3020 [8]. - The domestic soybean market is affected by the interaction of the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff negotiation and the expected increase in the arrival of imported soybeans. The bottom of the domestic soybean futures is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, but the rebound height is limited by the bumper harvest of South American soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. The soybean A2509 is expected to fluctuate between 4100 and 4200 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean meal: The US soybeans are oscillating and falling back. The overall good weather in the US soybean - producing areas suppresses the market, and it is oscillating above the thousand - point mark waiting for further guidance. The domestic soybean meal rebounds after reaching the bottom, with technical oscillatory consolidation. The high arrival of imported soybeans in July and the weak spot price suppress the market. It may return to the range - bound pattern. The basis is at a discount, the inventory has increased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average but the direction is upward, the long positions of the main force have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [8]. - Soybeans: The US soybeans are oscillating and falling back. The domestic soybeans are oscillating and rising, affected by the US soybean trend and technical oscillatory consolidation. The increase in the arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the market. The basis is at a premium, the inventory has increased slightly, the price is below the 20 - day moving average but the direction is upward, the short positions of the main force have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of the Sino - US tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the US futures have risen and then fallen back, expected to oscillate above the thousand - point mark [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in July, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills continues to rise, and the soybean meal has risen and then fallen back due to the reduction of protein content in feed formulations [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, the soybean meal has entered a short - term oscillatory and weak pattern [12]. - The low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal supports the short - term price expectation. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the variables of the Sino - US tariff war still exist, and the soybean meal remains oscillatory in the short term [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: High total arrival of imported soybeans in July in China, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean futures, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - Bearish factors: Continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppresses the price [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global soybean supply - demand balance sheet: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [30]. - Domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheet: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume of domestic soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [31]. 3.5 Position Data - The long positions of the main force in the soybean meal market have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [8]. - The short positions of the main force in the soybean market have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [10]. 3.6 Other Market Information - The export inspection of US soybeans on a weekly basis has declined both month - on - month and year - on - year [41]. - The arrival peak of imported soybeans has been postponed to June, with an overall increase [43]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has increased slightly, and the soybean meal inventory has continued to rise [44]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have declined from a high level, and the demand for forward stocking has increased [46]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has declined from a high level, and the soybean meal output in June has increased year - on - year [48]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has fluctuated slightly, and the profit of imported soybean futures has also fluctuated slightly [49]. - The pig inventory has maintained an upward trend, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and has declined slightly month - on - month [51]. - The pig price has recently risen and then fallen back, and the piglet price has remained weak [53]. - The proportion of large pigs in the domestic market has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has increased slightly [55]. - The domestic pig - raising profit has recently declined [57].