Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions of various financial derivatives and commodity futures on July 30, 2025. It presents the market performance, influencing factors, and operation suggestions for each category, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping futures, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - policies, international trade negotiations, and seasonal demand changes. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: On Tuesday, A - shares showed an intraday upward trend, with all major indices closing in the green. The technology sector led the rally, while high - dividend sectors declined. All four major stock index futures contracts rose with the indices. With the market approaching the mid - report disclosure period, it is necessary to verify the substantial improvement of corporate earnings. It is recommended to gradually take profits on IM futures long positions and switch to a small amount of MO put option short positions with an exercise price of 6000 on the 08 contract [2][3][4]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The stock market was strong, and there were expectations of incremental policies from the Politburo meeting, causing treasury bond futures to decline significantly. Long - term bonds were more strongly suppressed by policy expectations, while the loosening of funds supported short - term bonds. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the incremental policies of the Politburo meeting and the progress of Sino - US negotiations. The 2509 - 2512 contract inter - period spread may tend to rise in the short term [5][6]. Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: As the Fed's interest rate decision approaches, precious metals are in a state of shock consolidation. The market will gradually return to the influence logic of the US economic fundamentals. It is recommended to buy gold at low levels during the correction and buy silver at low levels above $38. The inflow of institutional funds into ETFs provides short - term support for prices [7][9][10]. Container Shipping Futures - EC: The main contract is in a weak shock state. The current mainstream shipping companies have announced their August prices, and the uncertainty has decreased. It is expected to show a weak shock in the short - term, and it is recommended to short the 08 and 10 contracts at high prices [11][12]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper market is in a narrow - range shock, waiting for macro driving factors. The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be restricted, and the demand shows resilience in the short - term. The inventories of COMEX, LME, and domestic social inventories are all increasing. It is expected to be in a shock state, and the main contract is expected to trade between 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [13][15][16]. - Alumina: The warehouse receipts have decreased again, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. The supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to be tight, and the inventory of warehouse receipts is low, supporting the price in the short - term. However, the market is expected to be slightly oversupplied in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the medium - term, with the main contract expected to trade between 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [17][18]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price has slightly declined, and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. The supply is stable, and the demand is in the traditional off - season. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and the main contract is expected to trade between 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton [19][21]. - Aluminum Alloy: The terminal consumption in the off - season is weak, and the social inventory in the main consumption areas is close to full. The supply is expected to decline slightly in July, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and the main contract is expected to trade between 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [21][22][23]. - Zinc: The Sino - US trade negotiations have started, and the market is waiting for macro guidance. The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the production growth rate is lower than expected. The demand is affected by the off - season and the rise in price. It is expected to be in a shock state, and the main contract is expected to trade between 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [23][24][27]. - Tin: The market sentiment has weakened, and the tin price has fallen from a high level. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see, and the market is expected to be in a wide - range shock [27][28][29]. - Nickel: The market sentiment has gradually been digested, and the nickel price is in a weak shock state. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is stable in the electroplating and alloy sectors but weak in the stainless steel and nickel sulfate sectors. It is expected to be in a range adjustment, and the main contract is expected to trade between 120,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [29][30][31]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless steel market is in a narrow - range shock, and the demand is still dragged down. The supply is slightly reduced, but the demand is weak. It is expected to be in a range operation, and the main contract is expected to trade between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton [32][33][35]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market sentiment has not improved significantly, and the trading core has shifted to the mining end. The supply is relatively high in the short - term, and the demand is stable. The whole - link inventory is increasing, but the growth rate has slowed down. It is recommended to wait and see carefully, and the market is expected to be in a wide - range shock [35][36][38]. Black Metals - Steel: The expectation of production restrictions has affected the steel price to strengthen. The cost has increased, and the profit of steel mills has improved. The supply is expected to be affected by production restrictions, and the demand is seasonally stable. It is recommended to try long positions as the steel price has broken through the previous high [40][41]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price fluctuates with the steel price. The global shipment volume has increased, and the port inventory has slightly increased. The demand for iron ore is supported by the high - level iron water production. It is recommended to be cautious when going long on a single - side basis and consider the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore [42][45]. - Coking Coal: The futures price has fluctuated greatly, and the spot price has increased steadily. The supply is tight, and the demand is strong. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to be cautious when going long on a single - side basis and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore, avoiding the risk of exchange intervention [46][50][51]. - Coke: The fourth price increase of mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price increases. The supply is difficult to increase due to corporate losses, and the demand is supported by the recovery of iron water production. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to be cautious when going long on a single - side basis and consider the strategy of going long on coke and short on iron ore, avoiding the risk of exchange intervention [52][55]. Agricultural Products - Meal: The bottom of US soybeans is well - supported, but the supply - demand situation suppresses the meal price. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the supply is high in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [56][57][58]. - Pigs: The spot price is in a weak state, and the previous policy benefits have been digested. The supply and demand are both weak, and the short - term price is not optimistic. It is recommended to be cautious when shorting the far - month contracts and pay attention to the impact of hedging funds [59][60]. - Corn: The market is in a state of long - short balance, and the price is in a shock state. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is weak. The substitution effect is slowing down. It is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent policy auctions [61][62]. - Sugar: The international raw sugar price is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic sugar price is also in a bottom - shock state. The international market has no new driving factors, and the domestic supply - demand situation is gradually becoming looser. It is recommended to maintain a short - biased view after a rebound [63]. - Cotton: The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a range - shock in the short - term and under pressure after the new cotton is listed. The supply pressure is increasing marginally, and the demand is weak [64].
广发早知道：汇总版-20250730
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-07-30 04:10