永安期货集运早报-20250730

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the documents. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, under the suppression of high capacity, as demand gradually enters the off - season, freight rates will be under pressure in the future [2][6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 EC Futures Contracts and Price Trends - EC2508 had a price of 2111.0 with a decline of 3.31%, EC2510 had a price of 1460.0 with a decline of 2.85%, EC2512 had a price of 1735.0 with a decline of 0.16%, EC2602 had a price of 1521.3 with a decline of 1.28%, EC2604 had a price of 1370.0, and EC2606 had a price of 1504.9 with an increase of 0.76% [2][6]. - For month - spreads, EC2508 - 2510 was 680.4, EC2510 - 2512 was - 40.0, and EC2512 - 2602 was 16.9 [2][6]. 3.2 Freight Rate Indexes - SCEIS had a decline of 3.50% on 2025/7/28, SCFI had a decline of 0.95% on 2025/7/25, CCFI (European line) had relevant data on 2025/7/25, NCFI (European line) had a decline of 1.20% on 2025/7/25, and TCI had a value of 1062.48 with no change on 2025/7/18 [2][6]. 3.3 European Line Supply and Demand - In August and September (temporarily), the average weekly capacity was about 325,000 and 324,000 TEU respectively. The capacity in week32/33/34/35 was 330,000, 305,000, 350,000, and 316,000 TEU respectively, with high capacity pressure especially in the second half of August. There was a transfer from the US line to the European line. Under the support of the shipping company's base cargo, the shipping company's load factor in July had no significant pressure. In early August, the base cargo still provided some support, but the cargo volume gradually weakened and entered the off - season [2][6]. 3.4 Recent European Line Quotations - In July, the quotations remained stable at around 2400 points. In August, the PA alliance's quotation dropped by 200 - 300 to 3100 US dollars, MSK's quotation first dropped slightly (2900 - 3000 US dollars) and then increased slightly, OA continued to use 3400 - 3500 US dollars. In week31, the quotation landed at about 3300 US dollars (equivalent to 2300 points on the disk). On Tuesday, HPL reduced the price by 200 to 3100 US dollars [2][6]. 3.5 Related News - On 7/29, China and the US reached a consensus in the Stockholm talks to extend the previously suspended 24% reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days, but the final agreement needs to be decided by President Trump [2][6]. - On 7/29, Israel was considering a full - scale military occupation of the Gaza Strip, the US State Department refused to hold a "two - state solution" meeting on the Gaza issue, and German government was expected to approve a 2026 budget with a record investment of 126.7 billion euros [2][6].