原油成品油早报-20250730

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. The monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declined, and the absolute prices dropped on Friday. The market is mainly concerned about the progress of trade negotiations between the US and other countries as the US tariff deadline approaches. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories decreased slightly, with US EIA commercial inventories and ARA and Singapore diesel inventories de - stocking, while US and domestic diesel inventories increased. The cracking spread of European diesel strengthened slightly, and global refinery profits declined slightly but remained high year - on - year. The absolute price of crude oil faces downward pressure in the medium term due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the contradiction between non - OPEC production and short - term diesel inventories [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - US President Trump stated that he is not worried about the oil issue if sanctions are imposed on Russia. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick mentioned that Trump accepts that natural resources will not face tariffs in EU trade. Traders expect OPEC+ to significantly increase production again to complete the current round of production restoration. The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending July 25 was 1.539 million barrels, compared with an expected - 2.5 million barrels and a previous value of - 0.577 million barrels [3] 2. Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report, in the week of July 18, US crude oil exports increased by 337,000 barrels per day to 3.855 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 102,000 barrels to 13.273 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.169 million barrels to 419 million barrels, a decrease of 0.75%; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.576 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.01%; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory decreased by 200,000 barrels to 402.5 million barrels, a decrease of 0.05%; and the import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves was 5.976 million barrels per day, a decrease of 403,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week. From July 18 - 24, the operating rate of major refineries remained flat, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. The production of gasoline and diesel at Chinese refineries decreased, and the inventories of both increased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries and local refineries decreased month - on - month [3] 3. Weekly Viewpoints - Crude oil prices fluctuated this week. The market focuses on US trade negotiations and potential sanctions on Russia. Globally, oil product inventories decreased slightly, and refinery profits declined slightly. In China, the operating rate fluctuated, and refinery inventories increased, with profits weakening. The short - term supply and demand of crude oil are supported by factors such as the peak demand season, high diesel profits, and potential US sanctions on Russia, but the peak - season factors have been largely realized, and the monthly spreads have started to decline. The absolute price of crude oil faces downward pressure in the medium term [4]