瑞达期货沪铜产业日报-20250730

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The Shanghai copper market has an overall fundamental situation where supply growth may slow slightly, demand is currently weak but the outlook is gradually improving. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slightly decreased implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows the double - line below the 0 - axis with the red bar converging. The recommended operation is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,930 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,772 dollars/ton, down 26 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 10 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 171,689 lots, down 2,055 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai copper are 8,781 lots, down 5,333 lots. The LME copper inventory is 127,625 tons, up 225 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 73,423 tons, down 11,133 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 19,400 tons, up 2,125 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants are 19,973 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 79,285 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market 1 copper spot price is 79,285 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 62 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 51.5 dollars/ton, down 3.5 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 355 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is - 51.71 dollars/ton, up 2.63 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 42.63 dollars/kiloton, up 0.82 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 69,610 yuan/metal ton, up 290 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 70,310 yuan/metal ton, up 290 yuan. The rough copper southern processing fee is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern processing fee is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refined copper output is 130.20 million tons, up 4.80 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 0 yuan/ton, down 55,290 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 221.45 million tons, up 11.85 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 291.1 billion yuan, up 87.114 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.48%, up 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.94%, down 0.14%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 10.68%, down 0.0073. The at - the - money option purchase - to - put ratio is 1.38, down 0.0894 [2] Industry News - The IMF raised China's 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% and the 2026 growth rate by 0.2 percentage points to 4.2%. It also raised the 2025 global economic growth forecast to 3%, and slightly raised the US economic growth forecast to 1.9%, and expected the eurozone economic growth to accelerate to 1% - A Fed governor will miss a policy meeting, and the committee is likely to keep interest rates unchanged - The central bank's second - quarter survey shows that over half of entrepreneurs and bankers think the current macro - economy is stable, while residents have a cold expectation of employment in the second quarter and most expect prices and housing prices to remain stable in the next quarter - China and the US will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures. The two sides' economic and trade teams will maintain close communication - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October, and analyzed the current economic situation and deployed the economic work for the second half of the year [2]