瑞达期货纯苯产业日报-20250730

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - BZ2603 oscillated strongly and closed at 6307 yuan/ton. In the short term, the domestic pure benzene market continues to have stronger supply than demand, and the low - valuation state of spot may persist. The cost is affected by the easing of concerns about US tariff policies and the strengthening of international oil prices. Macroscopically, the US - EU tariff agreement and the 90 - day extension of the suspended tariffs between China and the US have an impact. BZ2603's daily K - line should pay attention to the pressure around 6440 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract was 6307 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; the settlement price was 6304 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan. The trading volume was 10003 lots, down 471 lots; the open interest was 12826 lots, down 241 lots [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in the East China, North China, South China, and Northeast markets were 6040 yuan/ton, 6090 yuan/ton, 6050 yuan/ton, and 6065 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi were 6200 yuan/ton and 5700 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of pure benzene in South Korea (FOB) and China (CFR) were 745 dollars/ton and 757.5 dollars/ton respectively, both up 7 dollars/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 71.47 dollars/barrel, up 1.17 dollars. The CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 589.25 dollars/ton, up 10.75 dollars/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, up 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output was 42.48 tons, down 1.04 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene was 17.1 tons, up 0.7 tons. The production cost was 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan/ton; the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene was 78.84%, up 0.54 percentage points; the capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid were 95.72% (up 6.41 percentage points), 78.54% (down 0.46 percentage points), 69.24% (down 0.1 percentage point), and 64.3% (up 2 percentage points) respectively [2]. Industry News - The Politburo meeting pointed out that macro - policies should continue to exert force and increase force in a timely manner, release domestic demand potential, expand high - level opening - up, and prevent and resolve key risks. The China - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm from July 28th to 29th, and the suspension of some tariffs and counter - measures will be extended for 90 days. From July 18th to 24th, the profit of domestic petroleum benzene increased by 19 yuan/ton to 609 yuan/ton. As of July 28th, the pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 17 tons, down 0.58% from last week [2]. Forecast for the Future - This week, affected by the restart of domestic plants, the production of petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene is expected to increase. The import volume is expected to decrease, which may lead to a reduction in total supply, but the loose supply of pure benzene is expected to continue. The increase in phenol plant shutdowns this week may drive down downstream demand in the short term; in the long - term, the demand for pure benzene may improve marginally as downstream plants are put into operation from July to August [2].