瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20250730

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic caustic soda plant is still in the recovery phase, with few recent shutdown plans, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to maintain an upward trend. The expected production capacity to be put into operation from July to August is relatively high, and the medium - to - long - term supply pressure may increase. [3] - The price of downstream alumina has rebounded, driving an increase in the enthusiasm of enterprises for resuming production, and there is still some room for an increase in the alumina operating rate. The off - season for non - aluminum downstream industries continues, and demand is weak. [3] - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda in the spot market is not significant, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly. For futures, the daily K - line of SH2509 should pay attention to the support around 2470 and the resistance around 2700. [3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda futures contract is 2613 yuan/ton, the contract closing prices of caustic soda for January and May are 2656 yuan/ton and 2717 yuan/ton respectively. The futures trading volume is 752433 lots, a decrease of 277186 lots compared with the previous period. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 15810 lots, a decrease of 12901 lots compared with the previous period. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu regions are 830 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively, with no change compared with the previous period. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2593.75 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of caustic soda is - 19 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream prices of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest are both 210 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of steam coal is 638 yuan/ton, with no change. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream prices of liquid chlorine in Shandong and Jiangsu are 100 yuan/ton and - 125 yuan/ton respectively, with an increase of 25 yuan/ton in Jiangsu compared with the previous period. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12980 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The spot price of alumina is 3230 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. [3] 3.6 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30, emphasizing the need for macro - policies to continue to exert force and expand high - level opening - up. [3] - Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm from July 28 - 29, and both sides will continue to promote the 90 - day extension of the suspended tariffs. [3] - From July 18 - 24, the average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.0%, a month - on - month increase of 1.4%. [3] - As of July 24, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises' factories was 408,400 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 6.38% and a year - on - year increase of 4.29%. [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The operating rate of alumina increased by 1.84% to 85.45% last week, with an average profit of 409.4 yuan/ton. The operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.42% to 84.97% last week, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing remained stable at 58.9%. [3] - The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories increased by 6.38% to 408,400 tons last week. [3]