瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250730

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a methanol industry daily report dated July 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Report Core Views - This week, methanol port inventories increased as expected, mainly in the South China region. Typhoon weather affected the unloading speed and inventory accumulation. The mainstream social warehouses in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang area and other consumption areas remained weak and stable, leading to continued inventory growth. Short - term on - the - way foreign vessels are still sufficient, and apparent demand may remain weak. It is expected that port methanol inventories may continue to accumulate, but the impact of weather factors on the unloading speed needs to be monitored [2] - Last week, the load of olefin enterprises in East China decreased slightly, while other enterprise devices operated stably. The overall domestic olefin industry's starting rate decreased slightly. This week, the Zhongmei Mengda device is expected to resume, which will increase the olefin industry's starting rate [2] - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460 in the short term [2] Group 3: Data Summary by Category Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2419 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was - 91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest was 579345 lots, an increase of 3317 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 88181 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 8834, a decrease of 1000 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2400 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2057.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.5 yuan/ton; the East - Northwest price spread was 342.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main methanol contract in Zhengzhou was - 19 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; CFR China Main Port was 275 dollars/ton, an increase of 2 dollars/ton; CFR Southeast Asia was 333 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB Rotterdam was 239 euros/ton, an increase of 4 euros/ton; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price spread was - 58 dollars/ton, an increase of 2 dollars/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.07 dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.04 dollars/million British thermal units [2] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 54.7 tons, a decrease of 8.7 tons; in South China ports, it was 17.88 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons; the methanol import profit was - 1.56 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.54 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 122.02 tons, a decrease of 7.21 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises was 339800 tons, a decrease of 12500 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate was 83.98%, an increase of 1.29% [2] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate was 37.74%, a decrease of 5.91%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.19%, unchanged; the acetic acid operating rate was 92.69%, an increase of 2.1%; the MTBE operating rate was 69.01%, an increase of 1.38%; the olefin operating rate was 84.95%, a decrease of 0.15%; the methanol - to - olefin spot profit was - 912 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 26.01%, a decrease of 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 27.45%, a decrease of 0.31%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 19.93%, a decrease of 5.4%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 19.93%, a decrease of 5.39% [2] Industry News - As of July 30, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 32.45 tons, a decrease of 1.53 tons from the previous period, a 4.51% decrease; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 23.07 tons, a decrease of 1.41 tons from the previous period, a 5.76% decrease [2] - As of July 30, the total Chinese methanol port inventory was 80.84 tons, an increase of 8.26 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 2.50 tons, and in South China by 5.76 tons [2] - As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 86.08%, a decrease of 0.15% from the previous period [2]