Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Apple 2510 contract continues its adjustment trend, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [3] - The overall acquisition price of early - maturing apple varieties has declined, weakening price support, and affected by capital flow [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the October contract for apples is 7915 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 93828 lots, a decrease of 9760 lots compared to the previous period; the number of warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 3629 lots, a decrease of 246 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia, Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, and Shaanxi Luochuan remain unchanged compared to the previous period [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons; the weekly wholesale price of apples is 9.72 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.73 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg [2] Industry Situation - The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 70.45 million tons, a decrease of 10.15 million tons compared to the previous week; the storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 0.11, a decrease of 0.01; the storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi is 0.04, a decrease of 0.01; the monthly export volume of apples is 40000 tons; the monthly export value of apples is 4330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1955488 - 245562.17 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.7 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 10.04 yuan/kg, the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.97 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg, the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.81 yuan/kg; the early - morning average daily vehicle arrivals at Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets are 6.8, 8.8, and 14.6 vehicles respectively, with changes of 1, 0, and - 2 vehicles compared to the previous period [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for apples is 22.26%, a decrease of 0.47% [2] Industry News - On July 30, 2025, the trading of inventory fruits in the western production areas is basically over, and the remaining goods are mostly picked up by merchants and sent to the market. The supply of early - maturing apples has slightly increased, but the coloring is not satisfactory, and the price shows a slow decline. The sales of inventory apples in Shandong are average, with fruit farmers eager to sell. The Apple 2510 contract closed down 0.31% on Wednesday. According to preliminary estimates, the national apple output in the new season will be 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of July 23, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory is 70.45 million tons, a decrease of 10.15 million tons compared to the previous week. The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu are 11.12%, 3.65%, and 2.77% respectively, with decreases of 1.03%, 0.98%, and 0.92% compared to the previous week. The old - crop inventory is low, and the sales pressure is small. The trading is priced according to quality [2]
苹果产业日报-20250730
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-30 10:42