瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250730

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Shanghai lead prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short - term as overall supply is likely to decline slightly, demand remains unchanged, and there is anti - involution speculation. It is recommended to go long at low prices [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,890 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,020 dollars/ton, up 2.5 dollars. The 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 20 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The Shanghai lead open interest was 99,416 lots, up 3,040 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 324 lots, up 2,290 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 60,932 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory was 63,254 tons, up 919 tons; the LME lead inventory was 270,350 tons, up 6,700 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,750 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,880 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was - 140 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 31.8 dollars/ton, down 4.49 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 60 dollars/kiloton, down 10 dollars. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16.4 thousand tons, up 48.8 thousand tons. The global lead mine output was 399.7 thousand tons, down 3.7 thousand tons. The lead ore import volume was 11.97 million tons, up 2.48 million tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,158.93 yuan/ton, down 23.21 yuan [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of lead - acid batteries was 41.45 million units, down 425 thousand units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 19,975 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shenwan industry index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other cells was 1,759.9 points, down 11.76 points. The monthly automobile production was 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; the monthly new - energy vehicle production was 73,000 vehicles, up 164,700 vehicles [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump said that if there is no cease - fire agreement with Ukraine within 10 days, tariffs will be imposed on Russia. The US Secretary of Commerce said that Trump will announce pharmaceutical industry policies in the next two weeks. The EU plans to buy AI chips worth 40 billion euros in the US trade agreement. The Mexican President aims to reach a tariff agreement with the US this week. India is expected to reach a trade agreement with the US in September or October and is preparing to deal with a 20% - 25% tariff from the US [3]. 3.7 Fed News - Fed Governor Kugler will miss this week's interest - rate meeting due to personal reasons, and the number of voting members has temporarily dropped to 11. The "Fed whisperer" said that the Fed will need to continue to cut interest rates, but they are not ready to do so this week [3]. 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - The supply of primary lead has declined due to the decrease in the operating rate affected by the falling lead price. The supply of recycled lead is tight due to the shortage of waste battery raw materials, and the resumption of production is slow. On the demand side, although the lead - acid battery industry is approaching the traditional peak season, the actual demand has not effectively driven inventory reduction. The domestic inventory is rising slightly, and the overall demand is slowing down. The lead price is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [3].