瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250730

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of industrial silicon has a potential increasing trend due to the resumption of production in some southwestern regions, while the total demand from the three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) continues to show a slowdown trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a high - short strategy in the medium - to - long - term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9285 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the main contract position is 242,677 lots, down 34,057 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 74,088 lots, up 5,853 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50,113 lots; the industrial silicon price spread from August to September is - 45 yuan, up 15 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 10,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 10,250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the DMC spot price is 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Si main contract basis is 715 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly industrial silicon output is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly industrial silicon social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly industrial silicon import volume is 2211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly industrial silicon export volume is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,200 yuan/ton; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 65.11%, down 6.27 percentage points; the monthly aluminum alloy output is 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2] Industry News - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued a clarification announcement stating that some self - media reports about anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, especially in the polysilicon sector, are seriously inconsistent with the actual situation. The clarification may be related to the rumored acquisition and storage event in the polysilicon industry. Trump announced that a 50% tariff will be imposed on imported copper starting from August 1 [2] Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, in the northwest Ili region, large - scale production enterprises maintain the existing production rhythm; in the southwest region, some areas are resuming production, and overall output has a potential increasing trend. On the demand side, the demand from the three major downstream industries for industrial silicon is slowing down [2]