瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250730

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,600 - 15,500 in the short - term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12,500 - 13,000 in the short - term [2] - Currently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao Port shows a slight accumulation trend, with bonded warehouses reducing inventory and general trade warehouses increasing inventory. Overseas supplies arriving at the port and entering storage remain low, but the overall outbound volume is lower than expected due to terminal wait - and - see attitude [2] - In terms of demand, the production recovery of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises drove a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. However, towards the end of the month, the overall shipment performance of enterprises was lower than expected, with a slight increase in finished product inventory. Due to insufficient overall orders, some enterprises may have short - term maintenance plans from late July to early August, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to decline in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,945 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,575 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan [2] - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 805 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,370 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 99,492 lots, down 9,387 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 47,606 lots, down 4,373 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 29,778 lots, down 2,201 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 11,048 lots, down 437 lots [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 179,910 tons, down 2,010 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 39,716 tons, up 908 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,810 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,810 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber was 55 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 410 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,872 yuan/ton, down 99 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 297 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 65.33 Thai baht/kg, down 0.26 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 62.01 Thai baht/kg, down 1.1 Thai baht [2] - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 55.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 49.35 Thai baht/kg, down 0.65 Thai baht [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 140.8 US dollars/ton, down 33.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 35.2 US dollars/ton, up 2.6 US dollars [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.02%, down 0.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 75.87%, down 0.12 percentage points [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 40.95 days, up 0.1 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 46.55 days, up 0.37 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 0.8 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 19.79%, up 0.18 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.39%, down 0.2 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 31.55%, down 7.45 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 31.55%, down 7.44 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (July 27 - August 2, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in sporadic areas such as southern Myanmar and southern Cambodia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, with less impact on tapping operations. In the southern hemisphere, there were no red areas, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, with little impact on tapping operations [2] - As of July 27, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 640,400 tons, up 6,000 tons from the previous period, an increase of 0.91%. The bonded area inventory was 75,800 tons, a decrease of 2.70%; the general trade inventory was 564,600 tons, an increase of 1.42%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.63 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.67 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.14 percentage points [2] - As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, up 1.93 percentage points from the previous period and down 10.06 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, up 0.25 percentage points from the previous period and up 3.98 percentage points year - on - year. The production of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises basically recovered, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate [2] - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Due to rainfall in Yunnan, there is less glue, and the purchase price remains firm. In Hainan, the weather is fair, tapping operations are gradually carried out, and the output of raw materials on the island shows a seasonal increase. Affected by factors such as profit, local processing plants' enthusiasm for snapping up raw materials at high prices has increased, and the raw material purchase price has decreased [2]