《能源化工》日报-20250730

1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - Short - term PX supply is stable, but downstream PTA device maintenance increases in August and terminal demand lacks improvement, so PX trends follow macro - sentiment and oil prices. Strategies include being cautiously bearish on PX09 around 7000 and expanding the PX - SC spread at low levels [2]. - PTA load is around 80%, and its supply - demand in August is better than expected but still weak in the future. It is recommended to be bearish on TA above 4900, conduct TA9 - 1 rolling reverse arbitrage, and expand the PTA disk processing fee at low levels [2]. - In August, ethylene glycol supply - demand is near balance, with supply turning loose and demand weak. Strategies are to wait and see on EG99 unilaterally and conduct 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [2]. - Short - term short - fiber supply - demand is weak, and its price follows raw materials. The PF disk processing fee fluctuates between 800 - 1100 [2]. - Bottle - chip processing fee has recovered, but demand is average, and supply is high. The absolute price follows the cost end. PR is the same as PTA unilaterally, and the main - contract disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 600 yuan/ton [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose due to geopolitical uncertainties. Short - term trading focuses on geopolitical risks, and the disk fluctuates along the upper margin of the range. It is recommended to use short - term band strategies, with resistance levels for WTI at [69, 70], Brent at [72, 73], and SC at [525, 535]. Options can capture opportunities from increased volatility [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - In the third quarter, pure benzene supply - demand improves slightly, but new device production limits inventory reduction. Its price follows market sentiment. The main - contract BZ2603 follows oil prices and styrene unilaterally [10]. - Styrene supply - demand is expected to be weak, and port inventory increases. Its price is under pressure, and EBO9 should be operated with a rolling bearish strategy [10]. Methanol Industry - Inland methanol maintenance is expected to peak in early August, with high production, port inventory accumulation, and weak downstream demand. It is recommended to expand the MTO09 profit at low levels [30][31]. Polyolefin Industry - In August, PP maintenance decreases, and PE supply pressure increases. Demand is low in July, but there is potential for restocking. Strategies include being bearish on PP unilaterally (7200 - 7300) and holding LP01 [33]. Urea Industry - The urea disk rebounds slightly, but the core contradiction remains. Supply is high, and export policies restrict demand, leading to inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the start of autumn fertilizers and the resumption of previously - shut - down devices [40]. Chlor - alkali Industry - The caustic soda disk is strong, and the spot price is stable. Supply increases, and inventory may rise. It is recommended to be cautious due to macro - disturbances [46]. - The PVC disk sentiment recovers slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and domestic demand is weak, but export expectations are good. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term [46]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Polyester Industry - Prices and Cash Flows: On July 29, most polyester product prices and cash flows changed slightly. For example, POY150/48 price was 6720 yuan/ton, up 0.1% from the previous day [2]. - 开工率: Asian PX, Chinese PX, and PTA开工率 decreased slightly, while MEG综合开工率 and coal - made MEG开工率 increased [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Prices and Spreads: On July 30, Brent crude oil rose 3.53% to 72.51 dollars/barrel, while WTI slightly decreased. Some spreads, such as Brent M1 - M3, increased, while others like WTI M1 - M3 decreased [7]. - Product Oil: NYM RBOB increased slightly, while NYM ULSD and ICE Gasoil decreased slightly. Some product oil spreads also changed significantly [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Prices and Spreads: On July 29, most pure benzene and styrene - related prices increased slightly. For example, CFR China pure benzene rose 0.9% to 758 dollars/ton [10]. - Inventory and开工率: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory decreased slightly, while styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased. Some开工率 of related industries changed slightly [10]. Methanol Industry - Prices and Spreads: On July 29, MA2601 and MA2509 prices increased, and the MA91 spread and太仓基差 changed [30]. - Inventory and开工率: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories decreased. Some upstream and downstream开工率 changed slightly [30]. Polyolefin Industry - Prices and Spreads: On July 29, L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 prices increased slightly. Some spreads and基差 changed [33]. - Inventory and开工率: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased, and some PE and PP装置开工率 and下游加权开工率 changed slightly [33]. Urea Industry - Prices and Spreads: On July 29, most urea futures and spot prices decreased slightly. Some spreads and基差 also changed [35][39]. - Supply and Demand: Domestic urea daily and weekly production,开工率, and some inventory data changed. The market is affected by export policies and supply - demand relationships [40]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Prices and Spreads: On July 29, some PVC and caustic soda prices changed. For example, the East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 1.2% [43]. - Supply and Demand: Chlor - alkali开工率, industry profit, downstream开工率, and inventory data changed. The market has different trends for PVC and caustic soda [44][45][46].