大越期货PVC期货早报-20250730

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure decreased this week; maintenance is expected to decrease next week, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly [7][9] - Current demand may remain sluggish; overall inventory is at a high level [8][9] - PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5140 - 5244 [9] - The cost of calcium carbide method and ethylene method has strengthened, and the overall cost has strengthened [9] - The profit of calcium carbide method and ethylene method is still in a loss state, but the loss has decreased; the double - ton spread profit has decreased, but it is higher than the historical average, and production scheduling may increase [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Supply: In June 2025, PVC production was 1.99134 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.40%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.79%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide method enterprises was 338,340 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.58%, and that of ethylene method enterprises was 113,190 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.32%. Maintenance is expected to decrease next week, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly [7] - Demand: The overall downstream start - up rate was 41.88%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The start - up rate of downstream profiles was 38%, a month - on - month increase of 0.45 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The start - up rate of downstream pipes was 32.52%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.23 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The start - up rate of downstream films was 77%, a month - on - month increase of 0.33 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The start - up rate of downstream paste resin was 76.07%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are bearish, and domestic PVC export prices are advantageous. Current demand may remain sluggish [8] - Cost: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 133.62 yuan/ton, and the loss decreased by 57.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 505.79 yuan/ton, and the loss decreased by 14.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,883.45 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 1.00% month - on - month, higher than the historical average. Production scheduling may increase [8] - Inventory: On July 29, the factory inventory was 357,065 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.84%. The calcium carbide method factory inventory was 277,865 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.71%. The ethylene method factory inventory was 79,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.29%. The social inventory was 427,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.89%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63% [10] - Base Spread: On July 29, the price of East China SG - 5 was 5,240 yuan/ton, and the base spread of the 09 contract was 48 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [10] - Market Outlook: PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5140 - 5244 [9] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - Provides yesterday's PVC market data, including prices, spreads, inventory, start - up rates, and profits of different types of PVC [16] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Base Spread Trend: Displays the historical trend chart of PVC base spread [18] - Price and Volume Trend: Displays the price, trading volume, and open interest trends of PVC futures in June - July 2025 [22] - Spread Analysis: Displays the historical trend chart of the spread of PVC futures main contracts [24] 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium Carbide Method - Related: Includes the price, cost - profit, start - up rate, and production of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda [27][30][32][34] - Supply Trend: Displays the capacity utilization rate, production profit, daily production, and maintenance volume of calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC [39][40][42] - Demand Trend: Includes the trading volume of PVC traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream start - up rate, and related data of the real estate and infrastructure markets [44][46][53][56] - Inventory: Displays the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises [58] - Ethylene Method: Includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads [60] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Provides the monthly supply - demand data of PVC from May 2024 to June 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [63]