工业硅期货早报-20250730

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the market has a bearish sentiment due to factors such as over - supply, weak demand, and high inventory levels. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9160 - 9540 [6]. - For polysilicon, although the supply is increasing, the demand shows signs of recovery but may be weak in the future. The price is expected to fluctuate between 49545 - 52065 [11][12]. - The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to an oversupply situation, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are also some influencing factors such as cost support and production reduction plans [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 78,000 tons, a 1.30% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: The demand was 71,000 tons, a 4.05% decrease from the previous week, and demand remained sluggish. Polysilicon and organic silicon inventories were at high levels, and the aluminum alloy ingot inventory was also high [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 was 2027 yuan/ton, and the cost support weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On July 29, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9600 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 250 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 535,000 tons, a 2.19% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 177,500 tons, a 2.57% increase; the main port inventory was 120,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Disk: MA20 was upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [6]. - Main position: The main position was net short, with short positions decreasing [6]. - Expectation: Supply production scheduling decreased and remained at a low level, demand recovery was at a low level, cost support increased slightly. The industrial silicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 9160 - 9540 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the production was 25,500 tons, a 10.86% increase from the previous week. The estimated production in July was 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11.2GW, a 0.90% increase from the previous week, but the inventory increased by 11.54%. The current production was in a loss state. In July, the production scheduling decreased. The battery cell production continued to decrease, and the component production also decreased. However, overall demand showed some recovery but may be weak in the future [10][11]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 36,390 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 9110 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On July 29, the price of N - type dense material was 45,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 4305 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [13]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 243,000 tons, a 2.40% decrease from the previous week, at a high level in the same period of history [13]. - Disk: MA20 was upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [13]. - Main position: The main position was net long, with long positions decreasing [13]. - Expectation: The polysilicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 49545 - 52065 [12]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Market Overview - Futures closing price: Most contracts showed an upward trend, with an increase of about 4 - 5% [19]. - Spot price: The prices of some silicon products decreased slightly, while the price of East China organic silicon - used 421 silicon remained unchanged [19]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory was 535,000 tons, a 2.19% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory increased, and the main port inventory remained unchanged [19]. 3.3 Polysilicon Market Overview - Futures closing price: Most contracts showed an upward trend [21]. - Spot price: The prices of most silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained unchanged [21]. - Inventory: The weekly silicon wafer inventory decreased, and the photovoltaic cell export inventory decreased significantly [21]. 3.4 Other Related Content - The report also includes the price - basis and delivery product price difference trends, inventory, production and capacity utilization trends, component cost trends, cost - profit trends, and supply - demand balance sheets of industrial silicon, as well as the market trends of organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon downstream industries [23][27][31]