建信期货油脂日报-20250731

Report Information - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: July 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core View - Palm oil is undergoing a high - level adjustment due to concerns about rising domestic and foreign inventories. Production growth and weak demand are pressuring prices, but India's pre - Diwali inventory replenishment will support prices. The resistance level is seen at 9,500. Rapeseed oil is affected by abundant domestic supply and policies. The Sino - US talks have no clear results, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed is pending. Attention should be paid to far - month ship purchases. The spot basis of the three major domestic oils has limited room for significant downward adjustment in the later period, and far - month basis can be appropriately bought. Oils are oscillating strongly, with each variety being hyped in rotation recently, so risk control should be noted [7] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Quotes: In the East China market, the offer price of rapeseed oil traders and the basis price of soybean oil are given, and the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in East China is P09 + 60 yuan/ton, with real - order negotiation. [7] - Operation Suggestions: Palm oil is under pressure due to inventory concerns, with a resistance level at 9,500. For rapeseed oil, focus on far - month ship purchases. It is advisable to buy far - month basis as the basis of domestic three major oils has limited downward adjustment space. Pay attention to risk control as oils are oscillating strongly with variety rotation [7] 2. Industry News - Malaysian Palm Oil: From July 1 - 25, production increased by 5.52% month - on - month, with FFB yield up 6.08% and OER down 0.1%. Exports decreased by 8.53% month - on - month to 684,308 tons, and exports to China dropped from 145,000 tons to 58,000 tons [8] - Indonesian Palm Oil: In May, due to a surge in exports, inventory decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons, and exports reached 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% month - on - month increase [8] 3. Data Overview - Multiple charts are presented, including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1 spreads, and exchange rates of US dollars against the ringgit and the RMB [10][18][22][25][29]