建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250731

Report Information - Report Type: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: July 31, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. Core Viewpoints - The futures market of polyolefins opened higher and fluctuated, which supported the market sentiment. However, the supply - demand pattern has not improved. The supply shows an increasing trend while the demand follow - up is poor. After the short - term market sentiment is digested, the futures price will face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the introduction of specific stable - growth plans [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Futures Market: Lianplastic L2509 opened higher, closed at 7387 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (0.24%), with a trading volume of 245,000 lots and a decrease in positions by 9463 to 334,157 lots. PP main contract closed at 7145 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan, a decline of 0.03%, and positions decreased by 9052 to 299,700 lots [5][6]. - Supply - Demand Situation: The supply is increasing as the planned maintenance capacity decreases, some previous devices restart, and the second - phase project of Ningbo Daxie is planned to be put into production. The demand for agricultural films is at a seasonal low, the start - up of pipes and plastic weaving is stable, the orders in the daily chemical and food fields have slightly improved, but the production order days are extended, and the downstream's ability to accept high - price goods is insufficient, leading to inventory accumulation [6]. 2. Industry News - Inventory: On July 30, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 750,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons (3.85%) from the previous working day, compared with 745,000 tons in the same period last year [7]. - PE Market Price: The price of LLDPE in North China is 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, in East China is 7280 - 7600 yuan/ton, and in South China is 7420 - 7600 yuan/ton [7]. - Propylene Market Price: The mainstream price in the Shandong propylene market is 6220 - 6280 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The market sentiment is supported by some positive supply - demand news and the significant increase in international crude oil prices [7]. - PP Market Price: The mainstream price of drawn PP in North China is 7000 - 7130 yuan/ton, in East China is 7070 - 7180 yuan/ton, and in South China is 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides figures on L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][14][15]