大越期货尿素早报-20250731

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the urea market is currently in a state of oscillation. Although international urea prices are strong and domestic macro - policies bring positive impacts to the raw material side, the domestic supply - demand imbalance with excessive supply remains obvious. It is expected that the UR contract will continue to oscillate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures market has been oscillating recently. Domestic macro - policies are beneficial to the raw material side. Supply remains high in terms of daily output and operating rate, and inventories are accumulating again. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand are declining, and agricultural demand has weakened again. The overall domestic urea market has an obvious oversupply situation, and export policies have not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1820 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 78, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.3%, which is a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.431 million tons (+0.009 million tons), which is a bearish factor [4]. - Futures Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral signal [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The main UR contract has been oscillating recently. With strong international urea prices and positive macro - policies for raw materials, but obvious domestic oversupply, the UR is expected to oscillate today [4]. - Leverage Factors: Bullish factors include strong international prices and policy - driven strength in the raw material side; bearish factors are high operating rates and daily outputs, and weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes of international prices and domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | The price of the spot delivery product is 1820, unchanged; Shandong spot price is 1820, unchanged; Henan spot price is 1820, unchanged; FOB China price is 2680 [6]. | | Futures Market | The price of the 09 contract is 1742, down 2; the basis is 78, up 2; UR01 price is 1770, unchanged; UR05 price is 1802, up 5 [6]. | | Inventory | Warehouse receipts are 2900, unchanged; UR comprehensive inventory is 1.431 million tons, unchanged; UR manufacturer inventory is 1.136 million tons, unchanged; UR port inventory is 0.295 million tons, unchanged [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. Production has also generally shown an upward trend. - Net imports have fluctuated, and the import dependence has been between 8.4% and 19.3%. - Apparent consumption and actual consumption have also increased over the years, with consumption growth rates ranging from 0.3% to 17.9% [10].