建信期货国债日报-20250731

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: July 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Since mid - late July, the market risk preference has significantly increased, and the stock market's strength, commodity warming, and rising inflation expectations have pressured the bond market. However, the bond market did not experience a panic - driven decline. The market is still cautious about traditional factors driving the stock - bond pattern shift. The sustainability of the rally in cyclical stocks and commodities is questionable. If economic growth and inflation expectations are revised, the bond market will recover. In the long run, the bullish environment for the bond market remains, but the Politburo meeting's optimistic economic judgment and the lack of mention of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts may make the third quarter a policy observation period [11][12]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Conditions - The progress of the China - US talks on the extension exemption period did not exceed market expectations. Inter - bank cross - month funds were stable, and the A - share market tumbled in the afternoon, leading to a full - line recovery and gain in treasury bond futures [8]. Interest Rate Bonds - The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities declined by about 2 - 3bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond 250011 reported at 1.7155%, down 3.2bp [9]. Money Market - At the end of the month, the central bank made consecutive net injections, and the inter - bank money market was loose. There were 150.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 309 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 158.5 billion yuan. The inter - bank money sentiment index eased, short - term money rates declined across the board, and medium - long - term funds were stable [10]. 2. Industry News - On July 23, the CPC Central Committee held a symposium for non - Party personages to listen to opinions on the current economic situation and the second - half economic work. From July 28 - 29, China - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm, and both sides agreed to extend the suspension of part of the US reciprocal tariffs (24%) and China's counter - measures for 90 days [13]. - Minister of Finance Lan Fo'an wrote that the government should make full use of a more proactive fiscal policy, increase counter - cyclical fiscal adjustment, and promote the healthy development of the real estate market [14]. 3. Data Overview Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides data on treasury bond futures trading on July 30, including contract information such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc. It also mentions the spread between different contracts and the trend of the main contracts [6]. Money Market - The report presents data on the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repo weighted interest rate change, and inter - bank deposit - pledged repo rate change [28][32]. Derivatives Market - The report shows the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [34].