大越期货贵金属早报-20250731

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold prices declined as Powell did not give a clear indication of a September rate cut, causing the expectation of a September rate cut to cool off. Despite a brief recovery due to the Fed's statement about slower economic growth, gold prices continued to fall. There is still downward pressure on gold prices due to factors such as the Trump tariff deadline, the weakening rate - cut expectation, and the significant decline of international copper [4]. - Silver prices dropped significantly as the Trump administration excluded the most imported refined copper from tariffs, combined with the cooling off of the Fed's September rate - cut expectation. There is also downward pressure on silver prices, but the impact of the Trump tariff event is limited [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The US three major stock indexes showed mixed performance, European major stock indexes closed slightly higher, US bond yields fell collectively, the 10 - year yield dropped 8.75 basis points to 4.322%, the US dollar index rose 1.06% to 99.97, the offshore RMB depreciated significantly against the US dollar to 7.2123, and COMEX gold futures fell 1.58% to $3327.9 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The US three major stock indexes closed down across the board, European major stock indexes closed up across the board, US bond yields fell collectively, the 10 - year yield dropped 8.75 basis points to 4.322%, the US dollar index rose 0.27% to 98.92, the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1808, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.90% to $37.175 per ounce [5]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis is - 4.36, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the gold futures warehouse receipt increased by 2199 kilograms to 33462 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [4]. - Silver: The basis is - 24, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipt increased by 3228 kilograms to 1208094 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [5]. 3. Today's Focus - There are multiple events to watch, including the RBA Deputy Governor Hauser's participation in a fireside chat at 07:20, Japan's June industrial output preliminary value and retail sales at 07:50, the meeting between the US and South Korean finance ministers (time to be determined), China's July official manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI at 09:30, the Bank of Japan's announcement of the interest rate decision and economic outlook report (time to be determined), the Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's press conference on monetary policy at 14:30, France's July CPI preliminary value at 14:45, Germany's July CPI preliminary value at 20:00, the US July 26 - week initial jobless claims at 20:30, and the US Federal Circuit Court's hearing of President Trump's "reciprocal tariff" case (time to be determined) [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The Fed's statement mentioned slower economic growth, and although gold prices briefly recovered, Powell's press conference did not give a clear indication of a September rate cut and emphasized inflation risks. The premium of Shanghai gold expanded to 3.7 yuan/gram, and the RMB depreciated significantly, causing the premium to rise rapidly [4]. - Silver: The Trump administration's decision to exclude the most imported refined copper from tariffs led to a significant drop in silver prices, combined with the cooling off of the Fed's September rate - cut expectation [5]. 5. Position Data - Gold: The main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [4]. - Silver: The main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [5].