大越期货油脂早报-20250731

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level. [3][5][6] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. [7] Summary by Category Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production decline falling short of expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [3][4][5] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8420, with a basis of 180, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [4] - Inventory: On July 4th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year. [4] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [3] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400. [3] Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [5] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9050, with a basis of 68, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [5] - Inventory: On July 4th, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year. [5] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [5] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased. [5] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100. [5] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [6] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9700, with a basis of 79, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [6] - Inventory: On July 4th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year. [6] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [6] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. [6] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9400 - 9800. [6] Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and it is the palm oil production decline season. [7] - 利空: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing, the macro economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [7] Supply and Demand - Supply: Items include import soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [8][10][12] - Demand: The apparent consumption of soybean oil is mentioned. [16]