大越期货纯碱早报-20250731

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand, and the sentiment of policy benefits has subsided. In the short term, it is expected to mainly move in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily View - Fundamental aspect: The "anti-involution" sentiment has subsided. Alkali plants have fewer overhauls, and supply remains at a high level. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has significantly declined, and terminal demand has weakened. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,300 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2509 is 1,311 yuan/ton, with a basis of -11 yuan. The futures price is at a premium to the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national in-plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 2.15% from the previous week. The inventory is above the 5-year average, which is bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is running above the 20-day line, and the 20-day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand, and the sentiment of policy benefits has subsided. In the short term, it is expected to mainly move in a volatile manner [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - Bullish factors: The peak summer overhaul season is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - Bearish factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high for the same period. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. The "anti-involution" policy sentiment has subsided [5]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1,311 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53% from the previous value. The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.70% from the previous value. The main basis is -11 yuan, a decrease of 134.38% from the previous value [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the North China ammonia-alkali method is -87 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co-production method is -50.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 83.02%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally [18]. - The weekly production of soda ash is 723,800 tons, including 408,900 tons of heavy soda ash. The production is at a historical high [20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant increases in new production capacity of soda ash, with a total planned new capacity of 1.57 billion tons in these three years, and the actual planned production in 2025 is 1 million tons [21]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales-to-production ratio of soda ash is 105.66% [24]. - The national daily melting volume of float glass is 159,000 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.10% [27]. - The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti-involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in-production daily melting volume has significantly declined [30]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in-plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 2.15% from the previous week. The inventory is above the 5-year average [33]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply and demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply-demand gap, production capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34].