大越期货白糖早报-20250731

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic sugar market shows a pattern of strong domestic and weak foreign, and near - term contracts are stronger than long - term ones. The 09 contract is approaching the delivery month with a current discount of about 300. In the next month or so, the spot price may slightly decline while the 09 futures may rise slightly to complete the convergence of the futures - spot price difference. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 5800 - 6000. Attention should then shift to the 01 contract, with a short - term bullish and volatile view [5][9]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and short - term low out - of - quota imports. The change in the US cola formula to use sucrose is also positive. Negative factors are the increase in global sugar production and the supply surplus in the new year. The foreign sugar price around 17 cents per pound has opened the import profit window, increasing import pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 No information provided. 3.2每日提示 - Fundamentals: The modification of the cola formula is long - term positive for sugar. Czarnikow predicts a 750 - million - ton surplus in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season. The USDA expects a 4.7% year - on - year increase in global sugar production and a 1.4% increase in consumption in the 25/26 season, with a surplus of 1139.7 million tons. As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1116.21 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 811.38 million tons, and the sales rate was 72.69% (66.17% in the same period last year). In June 2025, China imported 42 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 39 million tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.57 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.32 million tons. The overall situation is neutral [4]. - Basis: The Liuzhou spot price is 6120, and the basis for the 09 contract is 316, indicating a premium over the futures, which is positive [6]. - Inventory: As of the end of May, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season was 304.83 million tons, which is positive [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral situation [6]. - Main positions: The net short positions are decreasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is negative [6]. 3.3今日关注 No information provided. 3.4基本面数据 - Global supply - demand balance in 25/26: The global production is predicted to be 202 million tons, a record second - high, with Brazil, India, and Thailand leading the increase. The global consumption is 198 million tons, with Asian demand growing by 1.3% and African demand having the fastest growth rate of 2.2%. There is a surplus of 270 million tons, shifting from shortage to surplus, but institutional forecasts vary. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 52% - 54%, with inventory pressure easing but still below the long - term average. The global trade volume is 62 million tons, with Brazil's export accounting for over 50% and Thailand's exports returning to a high level [36]. - Institutional forecasts in the past 3 months: The USDA predicts a surplus of 1139.7 million tons (doubling year - on - year), with Brazil and India's increased production leading to a loose supply situation. Datagro forecasts a surplus of 258 million tons due to India's resumed exports and Brazil's high production. ISO predicts a shift from a 488 - million - ton shortage in 24/25 to a possible surplus in 25/26, with regional shortages easing. StoneX predicts a global production increase of 330 million tons and a surplus of 430 million tons, as weak consumption growth cannot offset supply pressure [39]. - China's sugar situation: The sugar - cane planting area is expected to be stable at 1440 thousand hectares in 25/26. The sugar production is expected to be 1120 million tons. Imports are predicted to be 500 million tons, and consumption is expected to be 1590 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [41]. 3.5持仓数据 No information provided.