棉花早报-20250731

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market presents a complex situation with both positive and negative factors. The overall outlook indicates that cotton has returned to a weak position. The consumption off - season has led to insufficient orders, increased losses for textile enterprises, and reduced downstream purchasing enthusiasm. The delay in Sino - US trade negotiations and the maintenance of the current tariff situation also contribute to the weakening of the cotton market [4]. - There are some positive factors such as the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and the upcoming 90 - day foreign trade export order - grabbing period, as well as the year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. However, negative factors include the approaching 3 - month trade relaxation period, the consumption off - season, the overall decline in foreign trade orders, and the increase in inventory [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided in the content. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton production and consumption. ICAC's July report shows a production of 2590 million tons and consumption of 2560 million tons. USDA's July report indicates a production of 2578.3 million tons, consumption of 2571.8 million tons, and an ending inventory of 1683.5 million tons. China's rural department in July estimates a production of 625 million tons, imports of 140 million tons, consumption of 740 million tons, and an ending inventory of 823 million tons. In June, China's textile and clothing exports were 27.31 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. Cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.1%, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,470 yuan, and the basis for the 09 contract is 1715 yuan, showing a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: China's Ministry of Agriculture estimates an ending inventory of 823 million tons for the 2025/26 period in July, which is a bearish factor [4]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - Main Position: The position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is considered a bullish factor [4]. - Expectations: Sino - US trade negotiations continue to be postponed, and tariffs remain unchanged for the time being. The main 09 contract of Zhengzhou cotton has fallen below the 14,000 mark, and cotton has returned to a weak position [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Table: In 2024/25, the total global cotton production is 2578.3 million tons, and the total consumption is 2571.8 million tons. Different countries have different trends in production, consumption, imports, exports, and ending inventories. For example, China's production is 675 million tons, and consumption is 794.7 million tons [10][11]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Table: In 2024, the global cotton production is 2568.757 million tons, and the consumption is 2552.675 million tons, with an ending inventory of 1878.09 million tons [13]. - China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Table (Ministry of Agriculture): In 2025/26, the estimated production is 625 million tons, imports are 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and the ending inventory is 823 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton [15]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the content.