焦煤焦炭早报（2025-7-31）-20250731

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Coking Coal: The fourth round of coke price hikes has been implemented, and coking enterprises' profits have improved. They are increasing their inventory of raw coal, and some are proposing a fifth - round price hike. The market is strengthening, and coking enterprises' production is stable with a maintained enthusiasm for coking coal procurement. However, due to terminal demand and profit constraints, the upward space is limited. It is expected that the coking coal price will be slightly stronger in the short term [2]. - Coke: The fourth round of coke price hikes has been quickly implemented, improving coking enterprises' profitability. But the raw material coking coal price is still rising slightly, and production costs are high. Coking enterprises have no obvious intention to increase production. Downstream demand for coke is good, and inventories are low. With steel mills' high - level production supported by profits and low coke inventories, and the high coking coal price, it is expected that coke prices will continue to be slightly stronger in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Coal mines are affected by safety inspections and environmental protection, with supply slowly recovering. Coking enterprises are cautious about purchasing high - priced coal, and the price increase atmosphere has weakened. The auction market prices are mixed, but coal prices are generally stable due to pre - sold orders; bullish [3]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1040, and the basis is - 77, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures; bearish [3]. - Inventory: Steel mills' inventory is 791.1 million tons, port inventory is 321.5 million tons, independent coking enterprises' inventory is 790.2 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 1902.8 million tons, an increase of 45.9 million tons from last week; bearish [3]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average; bullish [3]. - Main Position: The main position of coking coal is net short, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [3]. - Factors: Bullish factors include rising hot metal production and limited supply growth. Bearish factors include slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. Coke - Fundamentals: The fourth round of coke price hikes has been implemented, improving coking enterprises' profitability. But the raw material coking coal price is still rising slightly, and production costs are high. Coking enterprises' production remains at the previous level, and downstream demand is good with low inventories; bullish [6]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1570, and the basis is - 106.5, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures; bearish [6]. - Inventory: Steel mills' inventory is 639 million tons, port inventory is 199.1 million tons, independent coking enterprises' inventory is 55.6 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 839.7 million tons, a decrease of 3.8 million tons from last week; bullish [6]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average; bullish [6]. - Main Position: The main position of coke is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [6]. - Factors: Bullish factors include rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rates. Bearish factors include squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partially over - drawn replenishment demand [8]. Inventory Data - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons from last week [20]. - Independent Coking Enterprises' Inventory: Coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week [23]. - Steel Mills' Inventory: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from last week [26]. Other Data - Coking Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74%, the same as last week [37]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [41].