PTA、MEG早报-20250731

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, with planned maintenance of some PTA devices in August, the supply - demand outlook is expected to improve. Last week, polyester sales volume increased significantly, and the inventory pressure of polyester factories eased. It is expected that the PTA price will fluctuate following the cost side in the short term, and the basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the macro - commodity atmosphere and the fluctuation of downstream polyester load [5]. - For MEG, the supply - demand situation in July - August has shifted to a tight balance, which is significantly better than the previous market expectation. Under the resonance of supply tightening and a good macro - atmosphere, the short - term price center of MEG will operate strongly. Attention should be paid to the progress of overseas device recovery [7]. - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - side. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance level when the market rebounds [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - PTA Daily View - Fundamentals: Affected by Trump's deadline for Russia, overnight oil prices rose further. Today, PTA futures followed the cost side, rising first and then falling, with an overall strong oscillation. However, some mainstream suppliers actively sold goods, and the spot basis weakened. The price negotiation range was around 4830 - 4890 [6]. - Basis: The spot price was 4858, the 09 - contract basis was 2, and the market was at a discount [6]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory was 3.99 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 days, which was bearish [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, which was bullish [6]. - Main Position: Net long positions increased, which was bullish [6]. - MEG Daily View - Fundamentals: On Wednesday, the ethylene glycol price adjusted widely, and the market negotiation was average. The negotiation center of ethylene glycol at night was around a premium of 61 - 63 yuan/ton over the 09 - contract. After the opening in the morning, the price fluctuated widely. After the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated, the buying volume in the market increased, and the spot basis strengthened to a premium of around 69 yuan/ton over the 09 - contract. In the afternoon, affected by the weakening of the commodity market atmosphere, the ethylene glycol market oscillated and declined, and the spot negotiation weakened slightly to a premium of 65 - 68 yuan/ton over the 09 - contract [7]. - Basis: The spot price was 4525, the 09 - contract basis was 75, and the market was at a discount [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China was 46.88 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.52 tons, which was bullish [7]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, which was bullish [7]. - Main Position: The main net short positions decreased, which was bearish [7]. - Expectation: The arrival of ethylene glycol at the main port last week was concentrated. It is expected that the visible inventory will moderately rebound at the beginning of this week. Attention should be paid to the weather changes and the unloading progress of ships during the week [7]. 3. Today's Focus - Influencing Factors Summary - Positive Factors: Recently, there have been frequent unexpected events on the ethylene glycol supply side. Several devices in Saudi Arabia unexpectedly shut down due to power problems, involving a production capacity of about 1.7 million tons. The load of a large - scale ethylene glycol producer in Zhejiang has been continuously decreasing. In addition, a 1.25 - million - ton/year cracking device in Lianyungang is planned to be overhauled in August, which may postpone the restart of the ethylene glycol device [8]. - Negative Factors: From the demand side, at the end of the rush - export period and during the off - season of domestic demand, the trend of weakening terminal demand is certain [8]. 4. Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It details the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the ethylene glycol total operating rate, production, supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - Price Data: It includes the spot price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, basis, and spread data of bottle chips, PTA, and MEG, as well as the inventory and production profit data of polyester fibers [13][26][61]. - Inventory Analysis: It presents the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and various types of polyester fibers [39]. - Polyester Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rates: It shows the start - up rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms [50][54]. - Processing Fees and Profits: It includes the PTA processing fee, MEG production profit, and polyester fiber production profit [58][61].