大越期货甲醇早报-20250731

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Report's Core View - The fundamentals of methanol 2509 show that the port market may be supported by coal reform in the short - term, but the expected concentrated import arrivals next week may limit the rise. The inland market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with high - temperature off - season and poor downstream profitability, but policies have a positive impact on the mentality of inland operators. It is expected that the inland methanol market will continue to be stable with a slight upward trend this week. Overall, it is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating in the range of 2390 - 2500 yuan/ton [5]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - Expected methanol price this week: It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate, and MA2509 will operate in the range of 2390 - 2500 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamental analysis of methanol 2509: The port market may be affected by coal reform and import arrivals; the inland market has a weak supply - demand situation. The base - difference shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price; the inventory in ports has decreased; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average; the main - force position is net short with a decrease in short positions [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - Likely to be bullish: Some device shutdowns such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xiye; decreased methanol production in Iran and low port inventory; the commissioning of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen and the planned commissioning of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong this month; external procurement of methanol by CTO plants in the Northwest [6]. - Likely to be bearish: The resumption of previously shut - down devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; expected concentrated vessel arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde entering the traditional off - season and a significant decline in MTBE operation; certain profit margins for coal - based methanol production and active sales; inventory accumulation in some producing - area factories due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Spot market: The price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 665 yuan/ton, CFR China main port is 277 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2445 yuan/ton. The prices in different domestic regions vary, such as 2407 yuan/ton in Jiangsu, 2230 yuan/ton in southern Shandong, etc. [8]. - Futures market: The futures closing price is 2419 yuan/ton, the registered warehouse receipts are 8834, and the effective forecast is 0. The base - difference is - 12 yuan/ton, and the import spread is 26 yuan/ton [8]. - Spread structure: The spread between Jiangsu and southern Shandong is 177 yuan/ton, and the spread between China and Southeast Asia is - 57 US dollars/ton [8]. - Operating rate: The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, with a decrease of 3.81% compared to the previous week. The operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, and the Southwest have also changed [8]. - Inventory situation: As of July 24, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 58.71 tons, with a decrease of 0.89 tons compared to the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 0.25 tons to 32.58 tons [5]. 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic methanol plant maintenance: Multiple plants in different regions such as the Northwest, North China, East China, Southwest, and Northeast are in a state of maintenance, including planned maintenance, unplanned maintenance, and production reduction due to various reasons [57]. - Foreign methanol plant operation: Some plants in Iran are in the process of resuming production, and plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States have different operating conditions, including normal operation, low - level operation, and planned shutdowns [58]. - Methanol - olefin plant operation: Methanol - olefin plants in different regions have different operating conditions, including normal operation, maintenance, and shutdown. For example, some plants in the Northwest and East China are in normal operation, while some are in maintenance or have been shut down for a long time [59].