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大越期货菜粕早报-20250731
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-31 02:29

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2680 - 2740. The market is influenced by factors such as soybean meal trends, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the impact of China's tariff policy on Canadian rapeseed residue cakes. In the short - term, it will maintain a range - bound oscillation [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is in a 2680 - 2740 range oscillation. The fundamentals show that the low opening rate of rapeseed meal oil mills and low inventory support the market. The spot demand is in the short - term peak season, and although the import of rapeseed is increasing, the short - term inventory pressure of oil mills is low. The tariff on Canadian rapeseed residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but the non - imposition of tariffs on rapeseed limits the positive impact. The basis is at - 95, indicating a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory increased by 25.83% week - on - week to 1.9 million tons and decreased by 44.12% year - on - year, which is bullish. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards, which is bullish. The main positions have changed from long to short with capital inflow, which is bearish. In the short - term, rapeseed meal is expected to return to range oscillation due to factors such as low rapeseed inventory and tariff policies [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, while the demand side maintains a good outlook. The slightly reduced annual output of Canadian rapeseed supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing with uncertain results. The global rapeseed output has slightly decreased this year, mainly affected by the reduced output in the EU and lower - than - expected output in Canada. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has an offsetting effect on rapeseed production, and the potential increase in global geopolitical conflicts still supports commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors include China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and residue cakes and the low inventory pressure of oil mills on rapeseed meal. Bearish factors are the listing of domestic rapeseed in June, the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12][13]. 4. Fundamental Data - The trading data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from July 21 to July 30 shows the average trading prices, trading volumes, and the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal futures and spot price summary shows the prices of the main 2509 contract, the far - month 2601 contract, and the spot price in Fujian from July 22 to July 30. The rapeseed meal warehouse receipt statistics show that the warehouse receipts have been 0 for several consecutive days. The domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet and the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet from 2014 to 2023 show data on harvest area, inventory, output, consumption, etc. The import of rapeseed in July was lower than expected, with slightly fluctuating import costs. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills has slightly increased, and the rapeseed meal inventory remains low. The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills has slightly increased [14][16][25]. 5. Position Data - Not specifically summarized in the provided content 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The rapeseed meal market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The market is affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, policies, and the trends of related products. Traders can pay attention to the range of 2680 - 2740 and the changes in factors such as inventory and tariffs [9].