大越期货PVC期货早报-20250731

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure decreased this week, and the expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with a significant increase in scheduled production [7]. - The overall downstream demand is low, with some downstream product start - up rates below historical averages [8]. - The cost of both calcium carbide method and ethylene method is strengthening, and the overall cost is strengthening [9]. - The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish trend [9]. - The PVC2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5105 - 5213 [9]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: In June 2025, PVC production was 1991340 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.40%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 76.79%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 338340 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.58%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 113190 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.32% [7]. - Demand Side: The overall downstream start - up rate was 41.88%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The start - up rates of some downstream products such as profiles, pipes, and paste resin were also lower than historical averages, while the start - up rates of films and paste resin were higher than historical averages. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive, but the current demand may remain weak [8]. - Cost Side: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 133.62 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 57.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 505.79 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 14.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2903.45 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.60%, higher than the historical average, and scheduled production may increase [8]. - Other Aspects: The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish. The inventory situation is mixed, with factory inventory decreasing and social inventory increasing, which is bearish. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract is above the MA20, which is bullish [10]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed table of yesterday's PVC market data, including prices, production, inventory, and start - up rates of different types of PVC and related products, as well as their changes compared to the previous period [16]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Base Price Trend: A chart shows the base price trend of PVC futures, including the relationship between the base price, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price over time [19]. - Price and Volume Trends: Charts display the price, trading volume, and position changes of PVC futures, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and the changes in the positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats [22]. - Spread Analysis: A chart shows the spread analysis of the main PVC futures contracts, including the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread over time [25]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium Carbide Method - Related: Analyzes the prices, costs, profits, start - up rates, and inventories of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method of PVC production [28][31][33][35]. - PVC Supply Trend: Analyzes the capacity utilization rates, production profits, daily and weekly production, and maintenance volumes of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production [40][42]. - Demand Trend: Analyzes the sales volume of PVC traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream start - up rates of PVC products, and the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, social financing scale, and other macro - economic indicators [44][46][48][53][56]. - Inventory Situation: Analyzes the inventory changes of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory warehouses, ethylene method factory warehouses, and social inventories of PVC [58]. - Ethylene Method - Related: Analyzes the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC exports, and price spreads in the ethylene method of PVC production [60]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Provides a supply - demand balance sheet of PVC from May 2024 to June 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data [63].