广发早知道：汇总版-20250731

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market experienced a decline and adjustment, with the consumer sector rising against the trend. The four major stock index futures contracts showed mixed trends. The bond market was affected by the Politburo meeting and Sino - US trade negotiations, with a short - term improvement in sentiment. Precious metals prices dropped due to a strong US economy and the Fed's decision to hold rates. The shipping futures market was expected to be weak and volatile. The prices of most non - ferrous metals were under pressure, and the agricultural product market had different trends based on supply and demand and policy factors [2][3][5][8][11][13][15][16][56]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - The main stock indexes showed mixed trends on Wednesday. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index declined. The four major stock index futures contracts had different performances, with IF2509 and IH2509 rising, and IC2509 and IM2509 falling. The high - dividend sector rose, while the TMT sector significantly corrected. It was recommended to take profit on the long position of IM futures and replace it with a small amount of short positions in the MO put option with an exercise price of 6300 in the far - month contract [2][3][4]. Treasury Futures - Treasury futures closed up across the board. The Politburo meeting had a mild statement on anti - involution and did not introduce unexpected growth - stabilizing policies, which was a sign of the end of negative factors for the bond market. It was recommended to be long in the short - term and pay attention to economic data [5][6][7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Trump announced tariffs on India and Brazil, and the US economy showed strong performance. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, causing the US dollar to rise and precious metals to fall sharply. Gold and silver prices dropped, and it was recommended to buy gold at low levels and pay attention to the support level. Silver prices were affected by market sentiment and had a relatively large decline, with the price seeking support above 37 dollars [8][9][11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - The spot quotes of container shipping were weak, and the shipping indexes declined. The futures market was expected to be weak and volatile, and it was recommended to short the 08 and 10 contracts at high prices [13][14][15]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The spot price of copper was high, and the trading sentiment was poor. The market's expectation of a 50% tariff on electrolytic copper was disappointed, and the price was under pressure. The supply was expected to be loose, and the demand was weak. It was recommended to pay attention to the price range of 77000 - 79000 [16][17][20]. Alumina - The spot price of alumina increased slightly. The supply was expected to be in a state of slight excess, but there was a risk of a short squeeze due to low warehouse receipts. It was recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the medium - term [20][22][23]. Aluminum - The spot price of aluminum increased slightly. The market was in a traditional off - season, with weak demand and a strong expectation of inventory accumulation. The price was expected to be volatile at a high level, and the reference price range was 20200 - 21000 [23][24][25]. Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of aluminum alloy remained unchanged. The industry was in an off - season, with weak demand and high inventory. The price was expected to be volatile, and the reference price range was 19600 - 20400 [26][27][28]. Zinc - The spot price of zinc increased slightly. The supply was expected to be loose, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be weak and volatile, and the reference price range was 22000 - 23000 [28][29][31]. Tin - The spot price of tin increased slightly. The supply was tight, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be volatile, and it was recommended to wait and see [31][33][34]. Nickel - The spot price of nickel increased slightly. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be adjusted within a range, and the reference price range was 120000 - 128000 [34][35][37]. Stainless Steel - The spot price of stainless steel increased slightly. The raw material prices were loose, and the supply was under pressure. The demand was weak, and the price was expected to be volatile within a range, with a reference price range of 12600 - 13200 [37][38][40]. Lithium Carbonate - The spot price of lithium carbonate declined slightly. The supply was affected by mining issues, and the demand was stable. The price was expected to be volatile around 70,000, and it was recommended to wait and see [41][42][44]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Steel prices declined, and the basis strengthened. The cost increased, but the steel mill profits improved. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was stable. The price was expected to be volatile, and it was recommended to buy on dips [45][46][47]. Iron Ore - The spot price of iron ore showed mixed trends. The demand was strong, and the supply was expected to increase slightly. The price was expected to be affected by steel production and policies, and it was recommended to be cautiously long and consider the arbitrage strategy of long hot - rolled coils and short iron ore [48][49]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures price fluctuated sharply, and the spot price was stable and strong. The supply was tight, and the demand was high. The inventory was at a medium level. It was recommended to be cautiously long and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short iron ore [50][51][52]. Coke - The coke futures price fluctuated, and the spot price was expected to rise. The supply was limited, and the demand was strong. The inventory was at a medium level. It was recommended to be cautiously long and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coke and short iron ore [53][54][55]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - The domestic meal spot price increased. The US soybean was under pressure due to a high - yield expectation, while the domestic soybean meal had support due to import concerns. It was recommended to wait and see [56][57][58]. Live Pigs - The live pig spot price was weak. The supply and demand were both weak, and the short - term price was not optimistic. The near - month contract was under pressure, and the far - month contract was affected by policies [60][61]. Corn - The corn spot price was stable. The market was affected by multiple factors, and the price was expected to be volatile [62].