2025年7月美联储议息会议点评：持之有故

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations[2] - The Fed has kept rates unchanged throughout the year due to uncertainties from tariff policies, inflation pressures, and economic instability[3] - The anticipated rate cuts for the year are expected to total between 50 to 75 basis points, contingent on future inflation data and tariff adjustments[6] Economic Indicators - The U.S. June CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, with core CPI increasing by 2.9%, indicating moderate inflation despite tariff impacts[3] - The unemployment rate has decreased to 4.1%, but job growth is primarily in the public sector, suggesting vulnerabilities in the labor market[3] Fiscal Policy and Market Sentiment - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill signed by President Trump reflects pressures on U.S. fiscal and economic stability, with potential risks of increasing debt if fiscal stimulus fails to translate into economic growth[4] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have been heightened due to political interference, which could lead to increased market uncertainty[6] Tariff Policy Implications - Ongoing tariff negotiations with Japan and Europe show signs of easing, which may influence the Fed's decision to adjust interest rates more rapidly if inflationary pressures are less than expected[6] - The impact of tariffs on prices remains uncertain, with further assessments needed based on upcoming inflation data in August and September[3]