苹果产业日报-20250731

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - On July 31, 2025, the supply of early - maturing apples in the west was average with poor coloring and weak market feedback. The trading speed of Shandong's inventory Fuji apples was average, and farmers were selling with price concessions. The Apple 2510 contract continued to decline and was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It was recommended to wait and see [2]. - The purchase price of early - maturing varieties declined, and farmers' price concessions pressured the apple market. The old - crop inventory was low with little sales pressure, but the overall shipment speed slowed down [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October contract for apples was 7814 yuan/ton, the main - contract position volume was 88131 hands, the number of warehouse receipts was 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 2395 hands. Compared with the previous period, the main - contract position volume decreased by 5697 hands, and the net long position decreased by 1234 hands [2]. Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia, Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, and Shaanxi Luochuan remained unchanged compared with the previous period [2]. Upstream Situation - The national apple output was 5128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons compared with the previous period. The weekly average wholesale price of apples was 9.72 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.73 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg [2]. - The total national apple cold - storage inventory was 70.45 million tons, a decrease of 10.15 million tons. The capacity utilization ratio of Shandong apple cold - storage was 0.04, a decrease of 0.01; that of Shaanxi was 0.11, a decrease of 0.01. The monthly export volume of apples was 40000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts was 4330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly export value of apples was 1955488 - 245562.17 million US dollars (the specific calculation result is not clear from the text). The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants was 0.7 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous period [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines was 10.04 yuan/kg, that of bananas was 3.81 yuan/kg, and that of watermelons was 5.97 yuan/kg. The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets was 6.8, 8.8, and 14.6 respectively, with changes of - 0.09, - 0.4, and - 2 compared with the previous period [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for apples was 22.48%, an increase of 0.22% compared with the previous period [2]. Industry News - On July 31, 2025, the supply of early - maturing apples in the west was average with poor coloring and weak market feedback. The trading speed of Shandong's inventory Fuji apples was average, and farmers were selling with price concessions. The Apple 2510 contract closed down 1.33% on Thursday [2]. - According to preliminary estimates based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple output in the new season will be 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons (2.35%) compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season [2]. - As of July 30, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 61.61 million tons, a decrease of 8.84 million tons compared with the previous week. The shipment speed slowed down slightly compared with the previous week and was basically the same as the same period last year [2]. - The capacity utilization ratio of Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu apple cold - storages was 10.10%, 2.91%, and 2.05% respectively, with decreases of 1.02%, 0.74%, and 0.72% compared with the previous week. The shipment in the Gansu production area was sporadic [2]. - In some production areas, the early - maturing apples had serious regreening problems, and the actual transaction prices of varieties such as Qinyang, Meiba, and Luli decreased by 0.30 - 0.50 yuan/jin [2].