瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20250731

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The HC2510 contract opened lower and moved lower on Thursday. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils stopped falling and rebounded, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.46%, at a relatively high level; the apparent demand rebounded, and the inventory increased slightly. Overall, the terminal demand for hot-rolled coils is relatively resilient, but the economic data has weakened, coupled with the slump in furnace materials, causing hot-rolled coils to fall under pressure. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,390 yuan/ton, down 93 yuan; the position volume was down 139,278 hands. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 102,930 hands, up 1,876 hands. The HC10 - 1 contract spread was - 7 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 185 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan. The HC main contract basis was 70 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,460 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; in Guangzhou was 3,430 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; in Wuhan was 3,510 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Tianjin was 3,380 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 80 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton, down 16 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,365 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,270 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 13,790.38 million tons, up 5.17 million tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory was 49.80 million tons, down 5.62 million tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory was 640.00 million tons, up 0.91 million tons; the Hebei billet inventory was 111.02 million tons, up 4.10 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.78%, down 0.14%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output was 322.79 million tons, up 5.30 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 82.46%, up 1.35%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 79.30 million tons, up 1.30 million tons; the 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory was 268.65 million tons, up 1.49 million tons. The domestic crude steel output was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons; the steel net export volume was 921.00 million tons, down 89.00 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The automobile output was 279.41 million vehicles, up 14.56 million vehicles; the automobile sales volume was 290.45 million vehicles, up 21.81 million vehicles. The air - conditioner output was 2,838.31 million units, down 109.69 million units; the household refrigerator output was 904.74 million units, up 53.74 million units; the household washing machine output was 950.79 million units, up 9.59 million units [2]. Industry News - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range between 4.25% and 4.50%, in line with market expectations, which was the fifth consecutive decision to keep the interest rate unchanged. According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from July 1st to 27th, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.445 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9% compared with the same period in July last year, and a 19% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 12.346 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11% [2].