瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250731

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The alumina market is in a stage of sufficient supply and stable demand, with long - term supply potentially converging due to policy influence. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market has relatively stable supply and weak demand in the short - term, with good long - term consumption expectations and a slight accumulation of industrial inventory. It is advisable to engage in light - position oscillating trades [2]. - The cast aluminum market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with accumulated industrial inventory and pressure on quotes. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - selling trades at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,510 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,222 yuan/ton, down 104 yuan [2]. - The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 2,606 US dollars/ton, down 25 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 456,100 tons, up 1,825 tons [2]. - The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.87, up 0.03 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 20,580 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of electrolytic aluminum is 70 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the basis of alumina is 8 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production is 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons [2]. - China's import of aluminum scrap and waste is 155,616.27 tons, down 4,084.65 tons; the export is 64.33 tons, down 8.11 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 47.60 million tons, up 1.40 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum total production capacity is 4,520.70 million tons, up 0.50 million tons [2]. - The primary aluminum import is 192,314.50 tons, down 30,781 tons; the export is 19,570.72 tons, down 12,523.35 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The aluminum product production is 587.37 million tons, up 11.17 million tons; the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 49.00 million tons, down 6.00 million tons [2]. - The automobile production is 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.33, up 0.0469; the implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money is 10.27%, up 0.0024 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The China Non - ferrous Metals Industry Association will strictly control new capacities of copper smelting and alumina [2]. - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate unchanged, and Powell said it's too early to say whether to cut rates in September [2]. - The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 3%, exceeding expectations, and the core PCE price index rose 2.5% [2]. - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October and emphasized economic policies [2]. 3.8 Alumina View Summary - The alumina main contract oscillates downward, with reduced positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The supply is sufficient and demand is stable, and it's recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - The Shanghai aluminum main contract oscillates weakly, with reduced positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The supply is relatively stable, demand is weak in the short - term, and it's recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades [2]. 3.10 Cast Aluminum View Summary - The cast aluminum main contract oscillates weakly, with reduced positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply and demand are both weak, and it's recommended to conduct light - position short - selling trades at high prices [2].