瑞达期货沪铜产业日报-20250731

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated weakly, with an increase in open interest, a spot premium, and a strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC fee is in the negative range, and the tight supply of copper ore remains the main contradiction, so the cost - support logic for copper prices still exists. The growth rate of domestic refined copper production may slow down slightly. The downstream processing enterprises are in the off - season, and the spot market trading sentiment is dull. The social inventory is at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage where the supply growth rate slows slightly, demand is temporarily weak but the expectation is gradually improving. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis and the green bars are expanding. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract was 78,040 yuan/ton, down 890 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 9,626 dollars/ton, down 72.5 dollars. The main contract's open interest increased by 4,504 hands to 176,193 hands, while the futures' top 20 open interest decreased by 5,333 hands to 8,781 hands. The LME copper inventory increased by 9,225 tons to 136,850 tons, and the LME copper cancelled warrants decreased by 25 tons to 19,375 tons. The SHFE cathode copper inventory decreased by 11,133 tons to 73,423 tons, and the SHFE cathode copper warrants decreased by 2,856 tons to 19,622 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 78,565 yuan/ton, down 720 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 78,555 yuan/ton, down 730 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price was 61 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium was 48 dollars/ton, unchanged. The CU main contract basis was 525 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) was - 46.8 dollars/ton, up 4.91 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The copper concentrate prices in Jiangxi and Yunnan decreased by 730 yuan/ton to 68,880 yuan/ton and 69,580 yuan/ton respectively. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) was - 42.63 dollars/kiloton, up 0.82 dollars. The refined copper output was 130.2 million tons, up 4.8 million tons, and the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social copper inventory was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai increased by 250 yuan/ton to 55,540 yuan/ton, and the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai increased by 200 yuan/ton to 67,900 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5下游及应用 - The copper product output was 221.45 million tons, up 11.85 million tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment was 291.1 billion yuan, up 87.114 billion yuan. The cumulative real estate development investment was 46,657.56 billion yuan, up 10,423.72 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 11.09%, up 0.61%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.36%, up 0.42%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV decreased by 0.0006 to 10.62%, and the at - the - money option call - put ratio was 1.4, up 0.0176 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association will strictly control the new capacity of copper smelting and alumina, and guide the rational layout of new capacities such as silicon, lithium, and magnesium. The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive time. The initial value of the annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the second quarter was 3%, far exceeding the expected 2.4%. The Politburo of the CPC Central Committee emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability. Trump signed an announcement to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper semi - finished products and high - copper derivatives from August 1 [2].