瑞达期货股指期货全景日报-20250731

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - A-share major indices collectively declined significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3,600 points. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased notably. Most industry sectors dropped, with the steel, non-ferrous metals, and real estate sectors weakening substantially. [3] - In July, China's official manufacturing PMI declined from the previous month and has been in the contraction range for four consecutive months. Although the non-manufacturing PMI and composite PMI remained above the boom-bust line, they also decreased from the previous values. The decline in manufacturing sentiment negatively affected market sentiment. [3] - China and the US reached a 90-day tariff truce extension as scheduled. The Politburo meeting on July 30 did not announce more incremental policies, which was weaker than market expectations. [3] - The third trade negotiation provided more flexibility for the market, but the decline of China's three major PMI indices in July indicated that economic recovery still faced challenges. After the Politburo meeting, without unexpected policies, market bulls might take profit, and stock index futures were expected to enter a wide-range oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Prices and Spreads - IF, IH, IC, and IM main and sub-main contracts all declined. For example, the IF main contract (2509) dropped to 4,057.0, down 73.2; the IH main contract (2509) fell to 2,777.0, down 40.6; the IC main contract (2509) decreased to 6,124.0, down 85.8; the IM main contract (2509) dropped to 6,538.0, down 58.2. [2] - There were changes in the spreads between different contracts. For instance, the IF - IH current month contract spread decreased to 1,293.0, down 32.6; the IC - IF current month contract spread dropped to 2,117.0, down 7.2. [2] Futures Position Holdings - The net positions of the top 20 in IF increased by 401.0 to -24,341.00, while those in IH decreased by 729.0 to -15,476.00, IC decreased by 1,765.0 to -12,414.00, and IM decreased by 56.0 to -37,444.00. [2] Spot Prices and Basis - The spot prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined. The basis of the IF main contract decreased to -18.6, down 3.8; the basis of the IH main contract increased to 1.0, up 0.4; the basis of the IC main contract decreased to -102.3, down 3.1; the basis of the IM main contract decreased to -123.2, down 8.9. [2] Market Sentiment - A-share trading volume reached 19,618.49 billion yuan, up 908.73 billion yuan. Margin trading balance increased by 21.07 billion yuan to 19,847.48 billion yuan. Northbound trading volume increased by 57.13 billion yuan to 2,391.44 billion yuan. [2] - The proportion of rising stocks decreased to 19.58%, down 12.04 percentage points. The Shibor increased to 1.392%, up 0.075 percentage points. [2] Industry News - The Politburo meeting decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, emphasizing the need to continue and strengthen macro - policies, release domestic demand potential, expand high - level opening - up, and resolve local government debt risks. [2] - China and the US held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, and agreed to extend the 24% reciprocal tariff suspension and China's counter - measures for 90 days. [2] - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index and composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2% respectively, down 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, both remaining above the critical point. [2]