瑞达期货红枣产业日报-20250731

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The jujube market has a seasonal off - peak demand and high inventory of old fruits, but there is periodic replenishment to support prices [2]. - New - season jujube production is expected to decrease by 5 - 10% compared to the normal year of 2022 and 20 - 25% compared to 2024, with an estimated new - season output of 56 - 62 million tons, and the reduction is less than that in 2023 [2]. - The new - season crops are in the critical fruit - setting period, and the market focuses on the weather in the producing areas. The temperature in Xinjiang will drop in the next few days, reducing weather risks [2]. - Overall, there are both bullish and bearish factors in the fundamentals. Macro - policy factors and the expected production reduction boost market sentiment, leading to a strong - biased fluctuation in the market, and it is expected to be mainly volatile later. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the new - season production [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main jujube futures contract is 10,695 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 128,528 lots (a decrease of 4,941 lots), the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 22,507 lots (an increase of 2,133 lots), the number of warehouse receipts is 8,739, and the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1,565 [2]. 现货市场 - The wholesale prices of jujube in various regions are stable. For example, the unified - grade jujube price in Kashgar is 6 yuan/kg, the first - grade grey jujube wholesale price in Hebei is 4.45 yuan/jin, etc. [2]. Upstream Market - The annual jujube output is 6.069 million tons (an increase of 3.187 million tons), and the planting area is 1.993 million hectares (a decrease of 41,000 hectares) [2]. Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory is 10,090 tons (a decrease of 230 tons compared to last week, a 2.23% decrease), the monthly jujube export volume is 1,765,107 kg (a decrease of 464,120 kg), and the cumulative monthly export volume is 17,115,674 kg [2]. Downstream Situation - The jujube wholesale price in Taiyuan, Shanxi is 20 yuan/kg (a decrease of 8), the cumulative quarterly sales volume of Haoxiangni jujube is 36,480.43 tons (a decrease of 2,981.06 tons), and the cumulative year - on - year production growth rate of Haoxiangni jujube is 1.47% (a decrease of 34.59%) [2]. Industry News - On July 31, the temperature in Aksu was between 15 - 28°C, and jujube farmers were actively managing their orchards. The mainstream per - mu yield was 700 - 800 kg, and attention was paid to the supplementary flowering of the third and fourth batches and physiological fruit drop [2]. - On Thursday, the jujube 2601 contract fell 0.83%. The physical inventory of 36 sample points last week was 10,090 tons, a 2.23% decrease from the previous week and a 73.07% increase year - on - year. Summer fresh fruits replace jujubes [2].