瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20250731

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 31, the SM2509 contract closed at 5,946, down 4.44%. The Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was reported at 5,820, down 80 yuan/ton. With no obvious incremental policy expectations and the impact of position limits, the market became cautious about high prices. The manufacturers' operating rate has rebounded for 8 consecutive weeks at a low level, and the inventory is moderately high. The port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 210,000 tons, and the downstream hot - metal output is at a high level. The Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 40 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit is 100 yuan/ton. The steel mill procurement price has rebounded this month. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market should be treated as a volatile one [2]. - On July 31, the SF2509 contract closed at 5,696, down 6.62%. The Ningxia ferrosilicon spot was reported at 5,710, down 12 yuan/ton. After several macro - events, the market sentiment weakened. The operating rate is at a low level, the Ningxia semi - coke price on the cost side has dropped, and the steel demand expectation is still weak. The ferroalloy production profit is negative, with the Inner Mongolia spot profit at 230 yuan/ton and the Ningxia spot profit at 430 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market should be treated as a volatile one [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为5,946元/吨，环比下降170元；SF主力合约收盘价为5,696元/吨，环比下降312元 [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量为603,752手，环比下降47,460手；SF期货合约持仓量为406,294手，环比下降32,084手 [2]. - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 96,908手，环比增加23,496手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 40,380手，环比增加7,426手 [2]. - SM1 - 9月合约价差为82元/吨，环比下降10元；SF1 - 9月合约价差为146元/吨，环比增加14元 [2]. - SM仓单为78,527张，环比下降209张；SF仓单为22,051张，环比增加48张 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 内蒙古锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,820元/吨，环比下降80元；内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,760元/吨，环比下降110元 [2]. - 贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,850元/吨，环比下降100元；青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,580元/吨，环比下降130元 [2]. - 云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,900元/吨，环比下降50元；宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,710元/吨，环比下降120元 [2]. - 锰硅指数均值为5,688元/吨，环比增加78元；SF主力合约基差为14元/吨，环比增加192元 [2]. - SM主力合约基差为 - 126元/吨，环比增加90元 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 南非矿Mn38块天津港价格为37元/吨度，环比无变化；硅石（98%西北）价格为210元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - 内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为1,050元/吨，环比无变化；兰炭（中料神木）价格为620元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - 锰矿港口库存为449.5万吨，环比增加21万吨 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为41.58%，环比增加1.05个百分点；硅铁企业开工率为33.33%，环比增加0.88个百分点 [2]. - 锰硅供应为186,480吨，环比增加3,640吨；硅铁供应为102,300吨，环比增加2,300吨 [2]. - 锰硅厂家库存为205,000吨，环比下降11,300吨；硅铁厂家库存为6.21万吨，环比下降0.14万吨 [2]. - 锰硅全国钢厂库存为14.24天，环比下降1.25天；硅铁全国钢厂库存为14.25天，环比下降1.13天 [2]. - 五大钢种锰硅需求为123,670吨，环比增加289吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为20,065.7吨，环比增加52吨 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.48%，环比无变化；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为90.78%，环比下降0.14个百分点 [2]. - 粗钢产量为8,318.4万吨，环比下降336.1万吨 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定10月召开二十届四中全会，强调做好下半年经济工作的相关政策 [2]. - 美国将对韩国征收15%关税，对巴西加征40%关税使总关税额达50%，对印度商品征收25%关税 [2]. - 国际能源署称全球电力需求将强劲增长，2025年预计增长3.3%，2026年增长3.7% [2]. - 加拿大央行连续第三次维持关键政策利率在2.75%不变，全球贸易战严重升级风险减弱 [2]. - 美联储维持联邦基金利率目标区间在4.25%至4.50%不变，这是连续第五次维持利率不变 [2].