农产品早报-20250731

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For corn, short - term support for spot and near - month contract prices is strong due to expected supply gap before new crop listing, but long - term supply increase may pressure prices [4]. - For starch, short - term weak rebound is expected, while long - term outlook is bearish due to high inventory and expected lower raw material cost [4]. - For sugar, international sugar price may have a corrective rebound, and the domestic market faces upward pressure as imported sugar is about to arrive in large quantities [7]. - For cotton, the price increase is driven by inventory reduction, but the upward trend needs verification in September; consider 9 - 11 or 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage for month - spreads [9]. - For eggs, the spot price is in a seasonal upward channel, but high cold - storage egg inventory and high laying - hen存栏 may limit the rebound height [14]. - For apples, the new - season output may not differ much from last year, and consumption is in the off - season with slow de - stocking [17]. - For pigs, long - term supply pressure remains, and the futures price needs further verification from the spot market [17]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Data: From July 24 - 30, corn prices in some regions changed slightly, with a 16 - yuan increase in潍坊 and no change in蛇口. Starch prices in some regions also had minor changes, with a 50 - yuan increase in Heilongjiang and a 30 - yuan increase in潍坊 [3]. - Analysis: Short - term supply tension is alleviated by reserve auctions, and the price has support before new crop listing. Starch has a weak short - term rebound and a bearish long - term outlook [4]. Sugar - Price Data: From July 24 - 30, the spot prices in柳州, Nanning, and Kunming remained stable, the base difference increased by 63, and the import profit and warehouse receipts changed [7]. - Analysis: International sugar price may rebound due to uncertain Brazilian production, and the domestic market has upward pressure from imported sugar [7]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Price Data: From July 24 - 30, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 215 yuan, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 196 yuan [9]. - Analysis: Cotton price increase is driven by inventory reduction, but the upward trend needs verification, and consider month - spread arbitrage [9]. Eggs - Price Data: From July 24 - 30, egg prices in some regions were stable, and the base difference increased by 68 [14]. - Analysis: Spot price is in a seasonal upward channel, but high inventory and high存栏 may limit the rebound [14]. Apples - Price Data: From July 24 - 30, the spot price in Shandong remained 7800 yuan, and the national inventory decreased by 23 [16][17]. - Analysis: New - season output may be similar to last year, and consumption is in the off - season with slow de - stocking [17]. Pigs - Price Data: From July 24 - 30, pig prices in some regions changed slightly, and the base difference increased by 125 [17]. - Analysis: Long - term supply pressure remains, and the futures price needs spot verification [17].