芳烃橡胶早报-20250731

Report Overview - The report provides daily and weekly data on various chemical products including PTA, MEG, polyester staple fiber, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and styrene, along with weekly and daily views on each product [2][3][6] PTA Key Data - On July 30, 2025, PTA spot成交 had an average daily basis of 2509(-11). The Yisheng New Material's 7.2 - billion - ton plant reduced its load to 80 - 90% [2] Core View - Near - term TA operation remained stable, polyester load slightly recovered, inventory continued to accumulate, and the basis weakened under active sales by major suppliers, with spot processing fees dropping again. PX domestic operation decreased slightly, overseas load was stable, PXN strengthened significantly, disproportionation and isomerization benefits remained, and the aromatics spread between the US and Asia shrank. TA will remain in a state of inventory accumulation but the absolute inventory level is not high, and spot processing fees are compressed to a low level. Polyester operation is expected to stabilize and has upward potential. Attention should be paid to short - term low - level positive arbitrage opportunities. The overall de - stocking trend of PX has not reversed, and there is still a guarantee for the lower limit of valuation [2] MEG Key Data - As of July 30, 2025, the basis of MEG spot was around 09(+64) [3] Core View - Near - term domestic coal - based MEG increased operation, Saudi Arabian plants restarted overseas, and port inventory is expected to accumulate due to more arrivals during the week. Downstream inventory levels increased, the basis remained the same, and the spread of benefits widened further. In the short term, port inventory is expected to remain low with little pressure to accumulate. The far - month has inventory accumulation expectations due to overseas plant restarts and further increase in coal - based load, but the valuation is greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side, and it is expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of satellite plants [3] Polyester Staple Fiber Key Data - As of July 30, 2025, the spot price was around 6619, and the market basis was around 08 - 70 [3] Core View - Near - term Sichuan Jixing restarted, and Times Hollow Fiber reduced production. Operation increased slightly to 90.6%, sales improved slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. On the demand side, the operation of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material inventory increased slightly, finished - product inventory continued to accumulate, and benefits further declined, showing a weak performance. In the future, the inventory pressure of staple fiber is acceptable, the supply of standard products has not decreased significantly but also has no increase. Domestic demand is weak while export growth is high, and processing fees are gradually entering a low - level range but there is no obvious upward driver. Attention should be paid to the subsequent operation status of polyester yarn [3] Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber Key Data - As of July 30, 2025, the daily change in the price of Thai RSS3 was 0, and the weekly change was - 15. The daily change in the price of Thai STR20 was 0, and the weekly change was - 15 [3] Core View - The main contradiction is that the national explicit inventory remained stable with a low absolute level but no seasonal de - stocking, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [3] Styrene Key Data - On July 30, 2025, the daily change in the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) was 0, the daily change in the price of pure benzene (CFR China) was 0, and the daily change in the price of styrene (CFR China) was 5 [6] Core View - No specific view was provided in the report for styrene, only price data were presented [6]