甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250731

1. Report Information - Report Title: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: July 31, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Team of the Research Center [1] 2. Core Views - Methanol: High imports are being realized, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It is in a period of bearish factor realization. With macro - instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. It is advisable to consider long - positions when the price is low [2] - Plastic: The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 150 in North China and - 100 in East China. Import profit is around - 100 with no further increase for now. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [7] - PP: The upstream inventory of polypropylene is increasing while the mid - stream inventory is decreasing. The 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive supply pressure under the background of over - capacity. Exports and PDH device maintenance can relieve the pressure [7] - PVC: The basis remains stable. Downstream开工 is seasonally weakening. The mid - upstream inventory reduction is slowing down. Attention should be paid to production commissioning, exports, coal prices, etc [7] 3. Data Summaries Methanol | Date |动力煤期货|江苏现货|华南现货|鲁南折盘面|西南折盘面|河北折盘面|西北折盘面|CFR中国|CFR东南亚|进口利润|主力基差|盘面MTO利润| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/07/24 | 801 | 2468 | 2448 | 2505 | 2530 | 2485 | 2638 | 280 | 333 | 47 | - 20 | - 1237 | | 2025/07/25 | 801 | 2488 | 2480 | 2540 | 2530 | 2485 | 2650 | 280 | 333 | 86 | - 25 | - 1237 | | 2025/07/28 | 801 | 2397 | 2400 | 2540 | 2530 | 2490 | 2640 | 276 | 333 | 31 | - 17 | - 1237 | | 2025/07/29 | 801 | 2392 | 2408 | 2520 | 2520 | 2490 | 2625 | 276 | 333 | 27 | - 18 | - 1237 | | 2025/07/30 | 801 | 2410 | 2423 | 2520 | 2530 | 2495 | 2660 | 276 | 333 | 27 | - 25 | - 1237 | | Daily Change | 0 | 18 | 15 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - 7 | 0 | [2] Plastic | Date |东北亚乙烯|华北LL|华东LL|华东LD|华东HD|LL美金|LL美湾|进口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/07/24 | 820 | 7230 | 7315 | 9450 | 7750 | 843 | 906 | - 59 | 7385 | - 120 | 75 | 5822 | | 2025/07/25 | 820 | 7310 | 7400 | 9475 | 7750 | 843 | 906 | - 24 | 7456 | - 150 | 73 | 5816 | | 2025/07/28 | 820 | 7230 | 7375 | 9475 | 7750 | 843 | 906 | - 24 | 7335 | - 130 | 73 | 5816 | | 2025/07/29 | 820 | 7250 | 7375 | 9475 | 7750 | 843 | 906 | - 24 | 7385 | - 160 | 73 | 5816 | | 2025/07/30 | 820 | 7260 | 7400 | 9475 | 7750 | 843 | 906 | - 24 | 7387 | - 130 | 73 | 5816 | | Daily Change | 0 | 10 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 0 | 0 | [7] PP | Date |山东丙烯|东北亚丙烯|华东PP|华北PP|山东粉料|华东共聚|PP美金|PP美湾|出口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/07/24 | 6250 | 740 | 7100 | 7105 | 6870 | 7278 | 880 | 1000 | - 14 | 7181 | - 40 | 75 | 12635 | | 2025/07/25 | 6220 | 740 | 7145 | 7113 | 6920 | 7298 | 870 | 1000 | - 13 | 7221 | - 80 | 73 | 12635 | | 2025/07/28 | 6170 | 740 | 7065 | 7108 | 6880 | 7280 | 870 | 1000 | - 11 | 7130 | - 60 | 73 | 12695 | | 2025/07/29 | 6190 | 740 | 7055 | 7105 | 6860 | 7276 | 870 | 1000 | - 11 | 7160 | - 90 | 73 | 12895 | | 2025/07/30 | 6220 | 740 | 7075 | 7105 | 6910 | 7280 | 870 | 1000 | - 11 | 7145 | - 100 | 73 | 12695 | | Daily Change | 30 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 50 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - 15 | - 10 | 0 | - 200 | [7] PVC | Date |西北电石|山东烧碱|电石法 - 华东|乙烯法 - 华东|电石法 - 华南|电石法 - 西北|进口美金价（CFR中国）|出口利润|西北综合利润|华北综合利润|基差(高端交割品)| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/07/24 | 2250 | 842 | 5060 | 5500 | 5450 | 4675 | 700 | 387 | 356 | - 244 | - 80 | | 2025/07/25 | 2225 | 847 | 5130 | 5500 | 5450 | 4675 | 700 | 338 | 356 | - 244 | - 80 | | 2025/07/28 | 2200 | 857 | 5060 | 5500 | 5450 | 4675 | 700 | 293 | 356 | - 244 | - 80 | | 2025/07/29 | 2200 | 862 | 5030 | 5500 | 5450 | 4675 | 700 | 322 | 356 | - 244 | - 80 | | 2025/07/30 | 2200 | 862 | 5040 | 5500 | 5450 | 4675 | 700 | 322 | 356 | - 244 | - 80 | | Daily Change | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | [7]