永安期货有色早报-20250731

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Views - The current weak demand for copper is due to the downstream off - season and weakened trans - shipment power, but the balance will be relatively tight after August. The annual apparent demand for copper is expected to be in the range of 4.8% - 5.5%. A short - term cautious but medium - to - long - term bullish view on Shanghai copper is maintained, and virtual inventory can be considered for establishment in the third quarter [1] - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and the demand in August is expected to be in the seasonal off - season. Inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly in August. Pay attention to demand and consider far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory pattern [1][2] - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is seasonally weak. Suggest short - term observation, holding internal - external positive arbitrage, and paying attention to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [5] - Nickel supply remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable. Pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6] - The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak. Pay attention to the policy trend due to the spread of anti - involution expectations in the short - term macro - aspect [7] - Lead prices declined slightly this week. Supply is expected to increase slightly in July, and demand has improved but still expects inventory accumulation. Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,800 and 17,500 next week [9] - Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply may decline slightly, and demand is expected to slow down. It is recommended to observe or short lightly at high prices in the short term [12] - The production of industrial silicon decreased in July, and the supply - demand balance turned to inventory reduction. The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate, and the price may decline if supply increases significantly [15] - The current fundamentals of lithium carbonate show strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the intermediate links. If resource - end risks are realized, the price has upward potential; otherwise, it will maintain low - level oscillation [17] Summary by Metal Copper - From July 24th to 30th, the spot price of Shanghai copper fluctuated, and the inventory increased by 9,225 tons. The current demand is weak, but the balance will be tight after August. The annual apparent demand is expected to be 4.8% - 5.5%. A short - term cautious but medium - to - long - term bullish view is maintained [1] Aluminum - From July 24th to 30th, the price of aluminum ingots fluctuated slightly, and the inventory increased slightly in July and is expected to continue to increase in August. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and arbitrage opportunities [1][2] Zinc - From July 24th to 30th, zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is seasonally weak. It is recommended to observe in the short term, hold internal - external positive arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [5] Nickel - From July 24th to 30th, the price of nickel decreased, and the inventory was stable. Supply remains high, demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6] Stainless Steel - From July 24th to 30th, the price of stainless steel was relatively stable. The fundamentals remain weak, and attention should be paid to the policy trend [7] Lead - From July 24th to 30th, lead prices declined slightly. Supply is expected to increase slightly in July, and demand has improved but still expects inventory accumulation. Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,800 and 17,500 next week [9] Tin - From July 24th to 30th, tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly, and demand is expected to slow down. It is recommended to observe or short lightly at high prices in the short term [12] Industrial Silicon - From July 24th to 30th, the production of industrial silicon decreased in July, and the supply - demand balance turned to inventory reduction. The market is expected to oscillate, and the price may decline if supply increases significantly [15] Lithium Carbonate - From July 24th to 30th, the price of lithium carbonate increased, and the inventory pressure in the intermediate links increased. If resource - end risks are realized, the price has upward potential; otherwise, it will maintain low - level oscillation [17]