原油成品油早报-20250731

Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Report Date: July 31, 2025 - Report Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. The monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declined, and the absolute prices dropped on Friday. The market is mainly focused on the progress of trade negotiations between the US and other countries. The President of the European Commission will meet with Trump on Sunday, and Trump said there is a 50 - 50 chance of reaching an agreement. The market is also concerned about US sanctions on Russia, with Trump threatening sanctions if a cease - fire agreement is not reached within 10 days. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories decreased slightly, US EIA commercial inventories decreased, diesel inventories in ARA and Singapore continued to decline, while diesel inventories in the US and China increased. European diesel cracks strengthened slightly, and global refinery profits declined slightly but remained high year - on - year. In China, refinery operations fluctuated, with Shandong refineries increasing production. Recently, gasoline and diesel inventories at refineries increased significantly, and refinery profits weakened quarter - on - quarter, limiting the scope for further increasing operations. Although factors such as the peak demand season for crude oil, high diesel profits, and the US plan to impose secondary sanctions on Russia support the near - term supply and demand of crude oil, the impact of the peak season has been largely realized, and the monthly spreads have started to decline. In the medium term, the absolute prices face downward pressure due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the contradiction between non - OPEC production and near - term diesel inventories [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - The US imposed the largest - scale sanctions on Iran since 2018, targeting over 50 entities and individuals and more than 50 oil tankers and container ships controlled by Iranian businessman Mohammad Hussein Shamkhani [3]. - European natural gas prices neared a two - week high as US President Trump threatened to punish India for buying Russian energy, raising concerns about global supply. Trump increased pressure on Russia to reach a cease - fire in Ukraine, and traders expected the US to take action against Russian oil and gas buyers including India. Gas prices briefly dropped after Polish Prime Minister Tusk saw new prospects for Russia to stop the invasion of Ukraine [4]. - Indian refiners asked the Indian government for clarification on whether their purchases of Russian crude would be affected by Trump's new social media post. Trump said he would impose a 25% tariff on Indian exports to the US starting August 1, and warned of additional penalties due to India's continued purchase of Russian energy. Indian companies buy over 1 million barrels of Russian crude per day [4]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report, in the week ending July 25, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.157 million barrels per day to 2.698 million barrels per day [5]. - In the same week, US domestic crude oil production increased by 41,000 barrels to 13.314 million barrels per day [6]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 7.698 million barrels to 427 million barrels, a 1.84% increase [6]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.801 million barrels per day, a 1.55% increase compared to the same period last year [6]. - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 238,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [6]. - US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 6.136 million barrels per day, an increase of 160,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [6]. - From July 18 - 24, the operating rate of major refineries remained flat, and the operating rate of Shandong refineries increased slightly. In China, refinery output of gasoline and diesel decreased, and inventories of both increased. The comprehensive profits of major refineries and local refineries declined quarter - on - quarter [6].